NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is up 3 points at 0.6524 in a quiet trading morning. There is a lack of data and volumes remain low as US traders prepare for the holidays and the main market focus remains the ECB meeting, the NFP and the US FOMC meeting with the RBNZ meeting in December also. Investors are also keen to see whether the recent decline in global milk product prices will prompt New Zealand’s Reserve Bank to cut rates a week before the Fed meeting.

US economic data “isn’t shooting the lights out, but it’s not too bad” and is keeping intact expectations the Fed will hike next month, said Imre Speizer, senior market strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in Auckland.

“The kiwi’s waiting for the Fed, the Reserve Bank here, and is watching dairy prices,” Speizer said. “Dairy prices are going up a little bit according to the futures market so the market doesn’t want to sell while dairy prices are firming.”

The dollar hovered near an 8-month peak against a basket of currencies on Tuesday; underpinned by expectations the US Federal Reserve is on course to raise interest rates in December. The dollar index stood at 99.668, not too far from the 8-month high of 100.00 struck overnight.

The index had fallen to as low as 98.735 late last week in what was considered a corrective phase following days of strong gains fuelled by prospects of tighter US monetary policy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 25, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction