NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 2, 2015, 05:16 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD dipped 3 points to trade at 0.6778 as Chinese data worried investors. The official Chinese PMI missed forecast to

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD dipped 3 points to trade at 0.6778 as Chinese data worried investors. The official Chinese PMI missed forecast to print at 49.8 against expectations of a 50 level while the private PMI report this morning showed a jump in manufacturing for small and medium size businesses. China is the largest buyer of New Zealand’s agricultural commodities and of Australia’s mining exports such as iron ore. A report at the weekend showed activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in October for a third straight month, adding to concern about a slowdown in Asia’s largest economy.

China’s factory activity fell for an eighth straight month in October, the Caixin purchasing manager’s index (PMI) showed, fuelling fears the economy may still be losing momentum in the fourth quarter despite a raft of stimulus measures.

The Caixin figures followed Sunday’s official survey, which showed activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in October for a third straight month.

Currency traders have plenty of data to mull over this week as they weigh the outlook for global growth and interest rates. For New Zealand, data is due on employment, housing, commodities, vehicle sales and dairy prices while in the US the focus will be on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, an important gauge for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to show employers in the US added fewer than 200,000 workers for a third month in October.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	AIG Manufacturing Index (Oct)	50.2		52.1
AUD	Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep)	2.2%	2.0%	-9.5%
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	48.3	47.5	47.2

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Culture Day
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Nov)		2.00%	2.00%
GBP	Construction PMI (Oct)		58.8	59.9
NZD	GlobalDairyTrade Price Index			-3.1%
USD	Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)		-0.9%	-1.7%