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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 6, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 5, 2015, 04:47 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD is flat at 0.6594 after falling against the stronger US dollar.  Inflation is low and should remain so, with the

NZD/USD is Trading Sideways

nzdusd thursday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is flat at 0.6594 after falling against the stronger US dollar.  Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years, but a little lower than earlier expected.

In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with growth in lending to investors in the housing market easing slightly while that for owner-occupiers appears to be picking up.

US nonfarm payrolls, which are closely watched by the Fed, are expected to show the world’s biggest economy added 180,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate held at 5.1 percent. That’s probably strong enough to keep intact bets that the Fed will hike next month after Fed chair Janet Yellen told the Congress that the December meeting was a “live possibility” for an interest rate hike, sending the greenback broadly higher. The unofficial ADP Research Institute report yesterday showed US companies added 182,000 workers last month, following a 190,000 increase in September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Stanley Fischer

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

 

nzdusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 6, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.5%

-1.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

 

-0.7%

-0.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.1%

1.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

 

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

-10.60B

-11.15B

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

 

180K

142K

 

 

  USD

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

 

165K

118K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 

5.1%

5.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

0.6%

0.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

 

 

578

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

 

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