Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD is flat at 0.6594 after falling against the stronger US dollar. Inflation is low and should remain so, with the
The NZD/USD is flat at 0.6594 after falling against the stronger US dollar. Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years, but a little lower than earlier expected.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with growth in lending to investors in the housing market easing slightly while that for owner-occupiers appears to be picking up.
US nonfarm payrolls, which are closely watched by the Fed, are expected to show the world’s biggest economy added 180,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate held at 5.1 percent. That’s probably strong enough to keep intact bets that the Fed will hike next month after Fed chair Janet Yellen told the Congress that the December meeting was a “live possibility” for an interest rate hike, sending the greenback broadly higher. The unofficial ADP Research Institute report yesterday showed US companies added 182,000 workers last month, following a 190,000 increase in September.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
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JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
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USD |
FOMC Member Stanley Fischer |
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AUD |
RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, November 6, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
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JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks |
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EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
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0.5% |
-1.2% |
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GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
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-0.7% |
-0.9% |
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GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) |
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-0.1% |
1.0% |
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GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
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0.4% |
0.5% |
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GBP |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
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-10.60B |
-11.15B |
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USD |
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks |
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USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct) |
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0.2% |
0.0% |
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USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) |
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180K |
142K |
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USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) |
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165K |
118K |
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USD |
Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
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5.1% |
5.1% |
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GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
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0.6% |
0.5% |
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USD |
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count |
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578 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs
Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov
Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov
Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction
Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction
Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL
Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction
Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction
Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction