NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD soared 47 points after Chinese data printed in the green, with imports into China soaring helping to support the

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD soared 47 points after Chinese data printed in the green, with imports into China soaring helping to support the kiwi which is dependent on exports into China. Investors are turning away from higher risk currencies such as the kiwi and Aussie on concern about the outlook for the global economy following weakness in Europe, Japan and China. Global growth concerns have strengthened currencies such as the yen while weighing on commodities and stock markets.

“It’s a risk aversion play, the yen tends to outperform in bouts of risk aversion where investors are nervous and kiwi being one of those currencies that’s linked to global growth tends to perform poorly, so that’s the classic response that we’ve seen in currency markets,” said Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Raiko Shareef. “Because they have this asymmetric response to investor nervousness, that cross tends to hurt the most when it comes to these sorts of episodes.

There was not a large amount of domestic or global financial data due this week so attention would be on stock market performance. Speizer said the New Zealand dollar could fall below US77c within the next few weeks and would probably struggle against the yen due to its perceived safe-haven status.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.		Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Holiday	Japan – Health-Sports Day
	Holiday	Canada – Thanksgiving Day
CNY		Exports (YoY) (Sep)	15.3%	11.8%	9.4%
CNY		Imports (YoY) (Sep)	7.0%	-2.7%	-2.4%
CNY		Trade Balance (Sep)	31.00B	41.00B	49.83B

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Asst Gov. Debelle
CNY	New Loans		750B	703B
EUR	French CPI		-0.3%	0.4%
EUR	French HICP		-0.3%	0.5%
EUR	Spanish CPI		0.2%	0.2%
GBP	CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.2%	0.4%
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		1.4%	1.5%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)		-0.4%	-0.6%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)		-0.3%	-0.3%
EUR	Industrial Production		-1.6%	1.0%