NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD eased by 3 points as the US dollar recovered in the Asian session. The kiwi is trading at 0.7891 remaining off

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD eased by 3 points as the US dollar recovered in the Asian session. The kiwi is trading at 0.7891 remaining off its lows hit earlier this month. Currency markets have been volatile the past week on concern about the outlook for growth in major economies including Europe, China and Japan. However, some investors are now reconsidering the outlook after a report yesterday showed Chinese exports rose more than expected in September and imports unexpectedly accelerated. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Chinese exports rose 15.3 percent in September from a year earlier, beating the 12 percent expectation in a Bloomberg survey, while imports rose 7 percent, against expectations of a decline, leaving China with a US$31 billion trade surplus. Imports of iron ore rose 16.5 percent and for copper gained 10.5 percent, suggesting China’s manufacturing base is still hungry for raw materials.

The data comes after the International Monetary Fund and various central bankers expressed concern at the weekend that the pace of global growth is faltering. China Finance Minister Zhou Xiaochuan told the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee that his country’s economic growth is expected to continue at a 7.4 percent annual rate of growth. China is New Zealand’s largest market.

New Zealand housing is becoming less affordable as rising wages are not enough to offset climbing house prices and interest rates, says Massey University’s latest quarterly Home Affordability Report.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	CGPI (YoY) (Sep)	3.5%	3.6%	3.9%
JPY	CGPI (MoM) (Sep)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
JPY	M2 Money Stock (YoY)	3.0%	2.9%	3.0%
AUD	NAB Bus. Confidence	5		7
AUD	NAB Business Survey	1		4
NZD	RBNZ Offshore Holdings	63.70%		65.00%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Wednesday, October 15
	CNY	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		1.7%	2.0%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi
	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-35.0K	-37.2K
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
	USD	PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.6%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi