NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD climbed as the US dollar weakened to trade at 0.8308 gaining 6 points while the DX tumbled 9 points as the likelihood of a temporary or partial US government shut down seems imminent. Chinese PMI data this morning printed a bit higher than expected but did not gather any momentum after the HSBC release just days ago. Yesterday, President Barack Obama said that he’s “not at all” resigned to a government shutdown, and that he expects to speak to congressional leaders during the day try to come to an agreement. At least one GOP House member said he thought a shutdown was unlikely. “I think we are not going to shut down the government. We are going to do the right thing,” said Representative Pete Sessions, the chairman of the House Rules Committee. After the vote, Standard and Poor’s issued a statement saying the debt ceiling debate is “unlikely” to change AA rating of US debt. But as the day progressed and lawmakers were unable to achieve enough votes in the Senate to pass a stop gap measure it looks more likely this morning. Strong retail sales and manufacturing numbers from Australia will help boost the kiwi as the two countries are linked together as cousins.

Stronger construction data on Monday also helped the kiwi remain in positive territory. New Zealand home building consents rose for the first time in three months in August although the government statistician’s trend series of data shows activity may be slowing for the first time since March 2011.

New dwelling consents, including apartments, rose 1.4 percent in August from July, seasonally adjusted, and were up 23 percent from the same month a year earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand. Excluding apartments, consents rose 0.8 percent in the latest month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 1, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 02 09:10 Sweden

Oct 03 08:30 Spain

Oct 03 08:50 France

Oct 03 09:30 UK

Oct 03 11:00 Norway