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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD is trading at 0.7846 down by 64 points after lackluster inflation data. Even a stronger than expected HSBC PMI

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.7846 down by 64 points after lackluster inflation data. Even a stronger than expected HSBC PMI report could not help support the kiwi. The New Zealand dollar slipped ahead of a report on third quarter inflation which is expected to show prices rose at a slower pace than the Reserve Bank predicted, signaling interest rates are likely to remain at current levels for longer. Inflation is the last piece of data the Reserve Bank will take into account before its review of the official cash rate on October 30, following gross domestic product and a quarterly survey of business confidence.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler says an increasingly international financial system is pushing up the exchange rate, but rejected calls for controls. In a speech opening the BIS Cross-Border Financial Linkages Conference in Wellington, Wheeler said that while international financial integration “can offer enormous benefits” it posed challenges for the ability to control inflation and stability in the financial system.

Despite plunging commodity prices and a concerted series of speeches and intervention by the Reserve Bank to try to lower the dollar, the kiwi was still buying almost US80 cents yesterday, well above its historic average.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens  

 

 

 

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (YoY) (Q2)

1.0%

1.3%

1.6%

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

0.3%

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Foreign Bonds Buying

-1,169.1B

 

784.2B

 

 

  JPY

 

Foreign Investments

-412.6B

 

-254.6B

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Quarterly Business

6

 

6

 

 

  JPY

 

Manufacturing PMI

52.8

52.1

51.7

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Mfg. PMI  

50.4

50.3

50.2

 

 

NZDUSD(15 minutes)20141023054543

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM)

 

-700M

-472M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY)

 

1,510M

2,020M

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.7%

0.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

3.0%

3.2%

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Sep)

 

470K

504K

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (MoM)

 

-5.8%

18.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

 

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