Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD is trading at 0.7846 down by 64 points after lackluster inflation data. Even a stronger than expected HSBC PMI
The NZD/USD is trading at 0.7846 down by 64 points after lackluster inflation data. Even a stronger than expected HSBC PMI report could not help support the kiwi. The New Zealand dollar slipped ahead of a report on third quarter inflation which is expected to show prices rose at a slower pace than the Reserve Bank predicted, signaling interest rates are likely to remain at current levels for longer. Inflation is the last piece of data the Reserve Bank will take into account before its review of the official cash rate on October 30, following gross domestic product and a quarterly survey of business confidence.
Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler says an increasingly international financial system is pushing up the exchange rate, but rejected calls for controls. In a speech opening the BIS Cross-Border Financial Linkages Conference in Wellington, Wheeler said that while international financial integration “can offer enormous benefits” it posed challenges for the ability to control inflation and stability in the financial system.
Despite plunging commodity prices and a concerted series of speeches and intervention by the Reserve Bank to try to lower the dollar, the kiwi was still buying almost US80 cents yesterday, well above its historic average.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NZD |
CPI (YoY) (Q2) |
1.0% |
1.3% |
1.6% |
|
|
|
NZD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q2) |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
JPY |
Foreign Bonds Buying |
-1,169.1B |
|
784.2B |
||
|
JPY |
Foreign Investments |
-412.6B |
|
-254.6B |
||
|
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business |
6 |
|
6 |
|
|
|
JPY |
Manufacturing PMI |
52.8 |
52.1 |
51.7 |
|
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Mfg. PMI |
50.4 |
50.3 |
50.2 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
NZD |
Trade Balance (MoM) |
|
-700M |
-472M |
|
|
|
NZD |
Trade Balance (YoY) |
|
1,510M |
2,020M |
|
|
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
3.0% |
3.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales (Sep) |
|
470K |
504K |
|
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
|
-5.8% |
18.0% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond
Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30
Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28
Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction
Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29
Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction
Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30
Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions
Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction
Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction
Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction
Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction
Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction
Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction