NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 27, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD climbed by 3 points to trade at 0.7826 after the release of September trade figures. kiwi's monthly trade deficit

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 27, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD climbed by 3 points to trade at 0.7826 after the release of September trade figures. kiwi’s monthly trade deficit widened more than expected in September as falling prices for logs and dairy products weighed on exports while imports were boosted by an incoming aircraft.

The country’s trade deficit widened to $1.4 billion in September, from a revised August deficit of $489 million and a shortfall of $221 million in the same month a year earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand. That was nearly double the $700 million deficit forecast in a Reuter’s poll of economists. Excluding large one-off items September’s trade balance deficit of $919 million, the largest for any September month since 2008, Statistics NZ said.

Exports fell 5.3 percent to $3.61 billion from the same month a year earlier, just above the Reuters forecast of $3.5 billion. Imports rose 23 percent to $4.97 billion, beating the $4.2 billion expected in the Reuters poll. Excluding large aircraft, imports rose 13 percent to $4.5 billion. China continued as the country’s number one trading partner although New Zealand slipped into a trade deficit with Asia’s largest economy, from a small surplus in September a year earlier. Chinese imports rose 9.6 percent in the month from a year earlier to $865 million, while New Zealand’s exports to the country declined 30 percent to $568 million, as the difference in dairy prices weighed on the value of the country’s exports.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Trade Balance (MoM)	-1,350M	-700M	-472M
NZD	Trade Balance (YoY)	650M	1,510M	2,020M

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