NZD/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2014

Outlook and Recommendation

The NZD/USD ended the month at a near term 2014 low at 0.7808 after Graham Wheeler talked down the currency and it was announced that the RBNZ intervened heavily in the currency market last month.  Everything happened at the very end of September as the US dollar surged and economic data weighed on the currency markets.  Protests in Hong Kong kept Asian traders on edge and lackluster data from China weighed heavily on the kiwi this month.  The New Zealand dollar is heading for an 11 percent slump in the September quarter as global demand for the greenback has rallied on the prospect of rising US interest rates next year, and as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand confirmed it had been active in the currency market, having jawboned the kiwi since July.

The kiwi has been under pressure in recent weeks as global investors rally behind the greenback on growing anticipation the Federal Reserve will start moving on interest rates as the world’s biggest economy recovers. Falling commodity prices for dairy and logs, two of New Zealand’s biggest exports, have also put pressure on the kiwi, along with heightened rhetoric from Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler in calling the currency unsustainably and unjustifiably high. Central bank figures yesterday confirmed market speculation the bank had intervened in foreign exchange markets in August, with net sales totaling $521 million in the month.

The kiwi is expected to rebound in early October as the tiny countries economy is doing well.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.                       Event    

Wednesday, October 1

                 CNY                    Manufacturing PMI                                                       

                 EUR                    German Manufacturing PMI                                                      

                 GBP                     Manufacturing PMI                                                       

                 USD                    ADP Nonfarm Employment Change                                                        

                 USD                    ISM Manufacturing PMI                                               

Thursday, October 2

                 GBP                     Construction PMI                                                          

                 EUR                    Interest Rate Decision                                                  

Friday, October 3

                 GBP                     Services PMI                                                    

                 USD                    Nonfarm Payrolls                                                          

                 USD                    Unemployment Rate                                   

                 USD                    ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI                                                     

Monday, October 6

                 CAD                    Ivey PMI                                                                          

Tuesday, October 7

                 GBP                     Manufacturing Production (MoM)                                          

Thursday, October 9

                 GBP                     Interest Rate Decision                                                

Friday, October 10

                 CAD                    Employment Change                                                  

Monday, October 13

                 CNY                    Trade Balance                                               

Tuesday, October 14

                 EUR                    German ZEW Economic Sentiment                                                                         

Wednesday, October 15

                 CNY                    CPI (YoY)                                                         

                 GBP                     Average Earnings Index +Bonus                               

Thursday, October 16

12:00       EUR                    CPI (YoY)                                                                          

Friday, October 17

15:30       CAD                    Core CPI (MoM)

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 11:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 01 11:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 01 11:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Gilt

Oct 02 10:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 02 17:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note