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NZD/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast – September 2016
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The NZD/USD closed the month at 0.7258 falling off its highs as the US dollar regained its footing at the end of the month. The kiwi was up by 1.23% for
The NZD/USD closed the month at 0.7258 falling off its highs as the US dollar regained its footing at the end of the month. The kiwi was up by 1.23% for the month and is a buy over the next week as the local economy is doing well. There has been little action in the kiwi and is expected to respond in September to Chinese data and US rate increase talk. The New Zealand dollar was little changed against the greenback and gained against the Australian dollar as traders await a key US labour market report for clues to the next US interest rate hike.
US companies added 177,00 jobs in August, according to the ADP private sector payroll report overnight, keeping in place forecasts for the official non-farm payrolls data on Friday of about 180,000 jobs. With Federal Reserve officials talking up the prospects of a rate hike as soon as September, depending on upcoming data, the labour market figures have taken on even more significance than usual.
What China watchers will be interested in will be profit growth and the health of the manufacturing sector over the coming week. Industrial profits are going to be updated this weekend and may inform the debate over risks to the corporate sector. Purchasing managers’ indices for the month of August — hence post-Brexit — will be released by the state covering the manufacturing and services sectors on Thursday, while the private sector manufacturing PMI will come out that same day. Manufacturing is probably still neither expanding nor contracting, while the larger services sector remains in a mild growth environment.
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| September Major Economic Events | ||||
| Date | Country | Name | Volatility | Previous |
| 9/1/2016 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 52.6 |
| 9/1/2016 | USD | ISM Prices Paid | 3 | 55 |
| 9/2/2016 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls | 3 | 255 |
| 9/2/2016 | USD | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 4.9 |
| 9/6/2016 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 1.5 |
| 9/6/2016 | AUD | RBA Rate Statement | 3 | |
| 9/6/2016 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product Y | 3 | |
| 9/6/2016 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product Q | 3 | |
| 9/6/2016 | GBP | Inflation Report Hearings | 3 | |
| 9/7/2016 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) | 3 | 0.3 |
| 9/7/2016 | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | 3 | |
| 9/7/2016 | CAD | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
| 9/8/2016 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0 |
| 9/8/2016 | EUR | ECB Monetary press conference | 3 | |
| 9/9/2016 | GBP | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 2 |
| 9/13/2016 | GBP | Core Consumer Price Index Y | 3 | 1.3 |
| 9/13/2016 | GBP | Consumer Price Index Y | 3 | 0.6 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Fulltime employment | 3 | -45.4 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Part-time employment | 3 | 71.6 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Employment Change | 3 | 26.2 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Participation Rate | 3 | 64.9 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 5.7 |
| 9/15/2016 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.25 |
| 9/15/2016 | GBP | BoE Asset Purchase Facility | 3 | 435 |
| 9/15/2016 | GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | 3 | |
| 9/15/2016 | USD | Retail control | 3 | 0 |
| 9/15/2016 | USD | Retail Sales – M | 3 | 0 |
| 9/15/2016 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos – M | 3 | -0.3 |
| 9/20/2016 | AUD | RBA Meeting’s Minutes | 3 | |
| 9/20/2016 | JPY | BoJ Press Conference | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 3 | -0.1 |
| 9/21/2016 | JPY | BoJ Monetary Policy Statement | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | EUR | Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | FOMC Press conference | 3 | |
| 9/22/2016 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 2 |
| 9/26/2016 | USD | Durable Goods Orders | 3 | 4.4 |
| 9/26/2016 | USD | Durable Goods Orders CORE | 3 | 1.5 |
| 9/29/2016 | USD | Gross Domestic Product Annualized | 3 | 1.1 |
| 9/30/2016 | USD | Fed’s Yellen Speech | 3 | |
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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