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NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 – 14, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 – 14, 2012, Forecast

In this article:

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 - 14, 2012, Forecast
NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 - 14, 2012, Forecast
Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD climbed and ended the week at 0.8325 giving a stellar performance this week against a stronger US dollar. By late in the week traders were looking for more risk and commodity currencies benefited. Also strong data out of China was a positive here.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 07, 2012

0.8325

0.8316

0.8336

0.8311

0.12%

Dec 06, 2012

0.8315

0.8290

0.8349

0.8284

0.30%

Dec 05, 2012

0.8290

0.8246

0.8294

0.8238

0.53%

Dec 04, 2012

0.8246

0.8214

0.8260

0.8202

0.39%

Dec 03, 2012

0.8214

0.8192

0.8225

0.8172

0.27%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates and policy and gave a fairly good assessment of the current state of affairs in New Zealand.

With positive trends in both Australia and China, the kiwi is a major beneficiary as it is dependent on its trade with its neighbors. Also as the US recovers NZ should be able to see increase in exports to the US.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 03

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-2.9%

-2.5%

-0.3%

 

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

0.4%

0.5%

 

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.50

50.40

50.40

 

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.5

51.3

51.7

Dec. 04

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-7.6%

-2.0%

9.5%

 

AUD

Current Account 

-14.9B

-14.8B

-12.4B

 

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

3.00%

3.25%

Dec. 05

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

 

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

118K

125K

157K

 

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.9%

2.7%

1.9%

 

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

-1.9%

-0.9%

-0.1%

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

54.7

53.5

54.2

 

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

Dec. 06

AUD

Employment Change 

13.9K

0.2K

10.1K

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K

380K

395K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3205K

3275K

3305K

Dec. 07

AUD

Trade Balance 

-2.09B

-2.05B

-1.42B

 

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

146K

93K

138K

 

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.4

34.4

 

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

147K

95K

189K

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.5

82.4

82.7

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 10

00:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

3.0%

0.9%

Dec. 11

00:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

-1

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-42.5B

-41.6B

Dec. 12 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

0.5%

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-147.5B

-120.0B

 Dec. 13

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-10

-3

Dec. 14

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

1.8%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 10 10:10 Norway 

Dec 10 10:10 Slovakia 

Dec 10 15:30 UK 

Dec 10 16:30 Italy  

Dec 11 09:30 Spain 

Dec 11 10:10 Greece 

Dec 11 10:15 Austria 

Dec 11 10:30 Belgium 

Dec 11 10:30 UK 

Dec 11 18:00 US 

Dec 12 10:10 Italy  

Dec 12 10:10 Sweden 

Dec 12 10:30 Swiss 

Dec 12 16:30 US 

Dec 13 01:30 Japan 

Dec 13 09:30 Spain 

Dec 13 10:10 Italy  

Dec 13 10:30 UK 

Dec 13 16:00 US 

Dec 13 18:00 US 

Dec 14 11:00 Belgium 

Dec 14 15:30 UK 

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