NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD opened the week at 0.8238 and hit a high on Friday at the same number to close the week at 0.8202. The commodity currencies all seemed to move in sympathy with each other. There was only a small amount of local data and little in region data outside of Japan. The USD continued to remain strong, along with positive eco data. The market focus remains the US Fiscal Cliff. EU Ministers finally reached an agreement with Greece on Monday which helped bolster global currencies and trader sentiment.

These weeks focus will remain the US fiscal problem with Christmas recess looming closer for US lawmakers. For the kiwi and the Aussie traders will be closely watching central bank meetings this week.

The RBA will have a firm feel for Q3 GDP that gets released just hours after its rate decision, and Bloomberg consensus expects a rise of between 3.1-3.4% over the prior quarter that would signal a further deceleration in growth from the prior two quarters.  Retail sales, jobs, and trade round out the Australian data hits.  The RBNZ’s rate decision, however, is not expected to be as uncertain, and in fact consensus is unanimous in calling for a hold at a 2.5% official cash rate.  China’s private sector purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector is expected to creep slightly further above the critical 50 line that divides expansion from contraction.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

 

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 03 10:30 Germany 

Dec 04 01:30 Japan 

Dec 04 10:30 Belgium 

Dec 04 15:30 UK 

Dec 05 09:30 Spain 

Dec 05 10:30 Germany 

Dec 05 11:00 Norway 

Dec 05 15:30 Sweden 

Dec 06 01:30 Japan 

Dec 06 09:50 France 

Dec 06 16:00 US 

Dec 07 16:30 Italy