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NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – May 9 -14, 2016 -Forecast
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The NZD/USD ended the first week of May at 0.6840 seeing a decline of 1.94% on the week after the RBA dropped rates and Chinese data disappointed. New
The NZD/USD ended the first week of May at 0.6840 seeing a decline of 1.94% on the week after the RBA dropped rates and Chinese data disappointed. New Zealand posted mixed economic numbers this week, and the kiwi is down about 150 points this week. The GDT Price Index, a bi-monthly dairy auction, declined 1.4%. This marked a sharp downturn compared to a gain of 3.8% in the previous reading. Employment numbers were a mix. Employment Change posted a gain of 1.2% in the first quarter, beating the forecast of 0.6%. At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.7% in March, up from 5.3% a month earlier. The estimate stood at 5.5%. Wage growth remains low and has weighed on inflation levels, which remain well below the central bank’s target of 1% to 3%. The RBNZ has expressed its concern about weak inflation and the strong New Zealand dollar, and lowering interest rates could help address both of these pressing issues.
In the US, Nonfarm Payrolls dropped sharply to 160 thousand. Average Hourly Earnings posted a gain of 0.3% and Unemployment Claims remained at 5.0%, as both indicators matched their estimates.
US Nonfarm Payrolls was dismal in April, as the key indicator slid to just 160 thousand, well short of the forecast of 203 thousand. This marked the lowest reading in seven months. There was concern that NFP, one of the most important indicators, would post soft numbers after weak job numbers earlier this week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week:
| Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | ||||
| Sunday, May 8, 2016 | ||||||||
| CNY | Trade Balance (USD) (Apr) | 40.00B | 29.86B | |||||
| Tuesday, May 10, 2016 | ||||||||
| CNY | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 2.4% | 2.3% | |||||
| Wednesday, May 11, 2016 | ||||||||
| GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | -1.1% | |||||
| USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.784M | ||||||
| Thursday, May 12, 2016 | ||||||||
| GBP | Interest Rate Decision (May) | 0.50% | 0.50% | |||||
| Friday, May 13, 2016 | ||||||||
| USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | 0.1% | |||||
| USD | PPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | -0.1% | |||||
| USD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.7% | -0.4% | |||||
| Saturday, May 14, 2016 | ||||||||
| CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) | 6.5% | 6.8% | |||||
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 09 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction
May 09 N/A Ireland Details of bond auction on May 12
May 10 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction
May 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 11 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2018 Schatz
May 12 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction
May 12 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on May 19
May 12 N/A Ireland Holds bond auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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