NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

 

The NZD/USD gained 33 points to trade at 0.7855 ahead of the central bank rate decision this week. New Zealand’s trade deficit widened more than expected in September as falling prices for logs and dairy products weighed on exports while imports were boosted by an incoming aircraft.

The kiwi’s trade deficit widened to $NZ1.4 billion ($A1.30 billion) in September, from a revised August deficit of $NZ489 million and a shortfall of $NZ221 million in the same month a year earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand. That was nearly double the $NZ700m deficit forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Exports fell 5.3 per cent to $NZ3.61 billion from the same month a year earlier, just above the Reuters forecast of $NZ3.5 billion. Imports rose 23 per cent to $NZ4.97b, beating the $NZ4.2 billion expected in the Reuters poll. Excluding large aircraft, imports rose 13 per cent to $NZ4.5b.

New Zealand has benefited from strong terms of trade this year as demand for dairy products and logs in China bolstered exports, while a historically high kiwi dollar keeps down the cost of imported goods

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011

Average: 0.8131 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.7371 USD on Nov 25, 2011

 

Major Economic Events for the week of October 27-31st

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction