Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels and Market Drivers

WTI crude oil (CL) prices received fresh buying interest on Monday, ending a seven-day losing streak that had pushed prices to a two-month low. The market’s attention turned to the upcoming US-Russia peace talks in Alaska. Sentiment improved on the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough.

The rebound followed a steep 5% drop last week. That was the sharpest drop since late June. The decline came on fears of slowing demand, new tariff shocks, and rising OPEC+ supply. However, the market has reached the short-term support of $64 and is rebounding from the support zone.

US sanctions also influenced market dynamics. Washington imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods in response to India’s continued purchases of discounted Russian oil imports. Similar measures against China are reportedly under consideration. These actions could disrupt trade flows and tighten supply, adding uncertainty to oil prices.

On the other hand, the Alaska talks remain a key risk factor. A deal could lower geopolitical risk premiums and recalibrate global oil flows. This might include easing sanctions on Russian exports. However, the deal failure could trigger renewed volatility. The market is waiting for OPEC+ and EIA reports for clues on supply-demand trends.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Rebound from $64 Support Level

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows weakness at the long-term support around the $64 area. A clear break below this level would be negative and could trigger a move toward the $55 region. Price consolidation below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs indicates a bearish trend and suggests a likely continuation of the decline in WTI prices.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation with Bearish Bias

The four-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is consolidating within the orange zone and attempting to break below the $64 area. A confirmed break below $64 could push prices toward the following support levels at $60 and $55.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Key Support Range of $3-$2.60

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) indicates that the price is consolidating at the long-term support level near the $3 region, exhibiting negative price action. The long-term support zone lies between $2.6 and $3, highlighted by the orange area. A drop within this range will likely find support and trigger a rebound in natural gas prices toward higher levels. This support coincides with the neckline of the cup and handle pattern formed in 2024.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

According to the 4-hour chart, natural gas prices have been consolidating between the $3.00 and $4.70 range since early 2025. Prices are now approaching the support zone between $2.90 and $3.00. A break below this region could push prices toward the $2.60 to $2.70 range. A rebound from this level will likely face resistance at $3.80 and $4.70.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows negative price action below the 100.50 level. The rebound on Monday produced a shadow on the daily candle, highlighting weakness. A break below the 50-day SMA at the 98 level will likely trigger another drop in the US Dollar Index.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it is trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern in the short term. The rebound from the 98 level on Monday was capped by resistance at 99.30, as highlighted by the red dotted trend line. A break above 100.50 is required to ease bearish pressure and target the 102 level.