Oil Fundamental Forecast – August 31. 2016

Crude Oil edged up today as traders wait for the weekly EIA report due tomorrow and the API data due out after markets close today. Oil is trading at 47.39 and Brent Oil is at 49.84. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Reuters last week he does not believe an intervention in oil markets is necessary since the “market is moving in the right direction”.

Iraq – which exported more crude this month from its southern ports than in July – will continue ramping up output, its oil minister said on Saturday.

A Nigerian militant group has said it has ended attacks on the nation’s oil and gas industry that have reduced the OPEC member’s output by 700,000 barrels a day to 1.56 million bpd.

But the prospect of a recovery in oil production from Libya happening any time soon was tempered after the head of the country’s National Oil Corp. said budgetary delays from the new government were undermining oil production.

“Oil prices are caught between concerns about oversupply and a strong dollar on the one hand and the prospect of further jawboning from OPEC members that some form of production freeze could be on the cards,” CMC Markets senior analyst Michael Hewson said.

The huge global oil oversupply that has weighed on prices for the past two years may not clear until the second half of 2017, Shell’s chief energy adviser Wim Thomas told Reuters.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 August 31, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Aug 29 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Aug 31

Aug 30 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Aug 31 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Aug 31 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 01 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 01 11:30 UK Jul 2022 Gilt

Sep 01 11:50 France Holds bond auction