Oil Fundamental Forecast – September 16, 2016

Crude Oil recovered some of its losses as speculator bought up the cheap commodity after several days of stiff declines. Oil is up 43 cents at 44.01 while Brent Oil gained 53 cents to reach 46.38. Oil, as is often the case, has been volatile this year, but some market observers’ bullish traders should wait until 2017, pointing to next as a prime time for oil prices to really rebound. While production has declined in the U.S., recently rebounding oil prices are encouraging exploration and production companies to revisit spending plans with some increasing capital expenditures. That has some oil market observers concerned about a rising rig count and the subsequent impact on crude prices.

“The majority of OPEC countries are in agreement that Iran should not halt oil production. Seeing as this was a last minute change of heart, Putin believes Iran is only a minor setback and the deal will ultimately occur. OPEC is to have further informal talks on September 27th. President Putin plans to discuss the matter with Prince bin Salman at the G20 summit in China this week as well,” reports OilPrice.com.

The International Energy Agency released its monthly oil market report on September 13, 2016. It reported that slowing crude oil demand, high global crude oil and product inventories, and rising crude oil production will extend the crude oil oversupply until 1H17.

The IEA also estimated that global crude oil inventories rose 32.5 MMbbls (million barrels) to 3,111 MMbbls in July 2016. This level is the highest on record.

OPEC released its Monthly Oil Market Report. It reported that rising production from non-OPEC producers and a less-than-expected decline in US crude oil production will lead to the extension of the oversupplied crude oil market.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 16, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 15 10:30 Spain 0.75% Jul 2021 Bono, 1.3% Oct 2026 bond & 1.95% Jul 2030

Sep 15 10:50 France Eur 5-6bn 0% Feb 2019 & May 2021 OATs

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 4% Dec 2020 I/L

Sep 15 11:50 France Eur 0.75-1.25bn 0.1% Mar 2021 & Mar 2025 OAT

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

Sep 20 11:30 UK Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction