Oil News: Bulls to Defend $65.29 as Tight Supply Lifts Oil Demand Outlook

Oil Prices Steady Below Resistance as Market Eyes Tariffs and Sanctions

Light crude oil futures held near flat on Friday, trading below the long-term pivot at $67.44, which now acts as near-term resistance for traders gauging momentum. A break above this level and this week’s high at $68.94 could trigger a move toward the short-term pivot at $71.20, marking the 50% retracement from $78.40 down to $64.00.

On the downside, the 200-day moving average at $65.29 remains key support, with potential buyer interest on the first test. If this level fails, deeper selling could extend toward the 50-day moving average at $63.20, keeping downside risk in focus for crude traders seeking entry and protective stop levels.

At 09:31 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $66.61, up $0.04 or +0.06%.

IEA and OPEC Diverge on Oil Prices Forecast

Crude oil news today is centered on the International Energy Agency’s latest report, which increased its supply growth forecast while trimming demand growth expectations for this year. However, peak summer refinery runs to meet travel and power demand are maintaining near-term market tightness, offering a floor under prices despite the broader demand concerns.

Brent futures traded with a front-month September premium of $1.11 over October, reflecting a tight prompt market structure. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook revised lower its global oil demand projections for 2026 to 2029, citing slowing Chinese demand, a longer-term bearish signal traders will monitor for positioning adjustments.

Tariff Risks and Russia Sanctions Weigh on Oil Sentiment

Both Brent and WTI contracts were little changed on the week, with Brent up 0.8% while WTI edged 0.3% lower, reflecting the market’s caution amid tariff uncertainties tied to President Trump’s evolving policies. Both benchmarks fell over 2% on Thursday as concerns grew over the potential drag on global growth and oil demand from new tariff measures.

Prices recovered slightly after President Trump signaled plans for a “major” statement on Russia, raising the risk of further sanctions. ING analysts noted this development could leave markets nervous, increasing volatility as traders await clarity.

Saudi Crude Exports to China Highlight Robust Prompt Demand

Traders also noted signs of solid prompt demand, including expectations that Saudi Arabia will ship around 51 million barrels of crude to China in August, the highest in over two years. This reinforces a floor under the market, counterbalancing weaker longer-term demand projections and maintaining a firm structure for front-month contracts.

Crude Oil Market Outlook: Cautiously Bullish While Below Pivot

In conclusion, the crude oil market retains a cautiously bullish undertone, underpinned by tight summer demand and strong prompt structures, while broader headwinds from tariffs, potential Russian sanctions, and revised demand projections temper upside potential.

A sustained move above $67.44 and $68.94 could attract fresh buyers aiming for $71.20, while failure to hold $65.29 may expose crude to deeper corrective moves toward $63.20.

Traders should remain alert for policy updates from President Trump and the European Commission’s floating Russian oil price cap proposal, both of which could significantly influence near-term crude oil price projections.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.