Oil News: Can Russian Sanctions Validate Bullish Weekly Reversal as Supply Risks Loom?

Crude Oil Rebounds 7% on Russian Sanctions and Tightening Fundamentals

WTI crude oil futures surged last week, closing at $61.50—up $4.35, or 7.61%. The move marked the strongest weekly gain since mid-June and followed a successful defense of long-term support near $55.27 early in the week.

Russia Sanctions Spark Fresh Supply Disruptions

The rally was driven by new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil—Russia’s two largest oil producers. These companies account for over 5% of global output. The U.K. and European Union followed with coordinated measures, including a ban on Russian LNG and penalties on Chinese refiners handling Russian cargoes.

Immediate market reaction was fueled by reports that Indian refiners—the top importers of Russian seaborne crude—are cutting purchases. Chinese state-owned firms also paused buying activity. While some analysts remain cautious on the long-term impact, the short-term effect has tightened available supply in Asia and injected a renewed risk premium into crude benchmarks.

Inventory Data and U.S. SPR Buying Reinforce Bullish Sentiment

Bullish sentiment was reinforced by larger-than-expected U.S. inventory drawdowns across crude, gasoline, and distillates. The Department of Energy announced plans to purchase 1 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, signaling confidence in current price levels and tightening conditions. This followed a return to backwardation in both Brent and WTI six-month spreads, further indicating that traders are pricing in tighter near-term supply.

Market participants are also monitoring potential developments from upcoming U.S.-China trade talks, which may influence global commodity flows and broader demand expectations into November.

Weekly Technicals: Reversal Pattern Forms at Key Long-Term Support

WTI crude bottomed at $55.96 last week, just above the critical May low of $55.27. The rally gained momentum after clearing Fibonacci support at $59.44 and peaked at $62.49, directly above the 52-week moving average at $62.31 and a minor 50% retracement level at $62.50.

The market posted a potentially bullish closing price reversal pattern. Confirmation would come with a sustained move above $62.49, which would position crude decisively above the 52-week moving average—a level widely viewed as the primary trend indicator. This would strengthen the bullish structure and validate upside continuation.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bullish Trend Setup Building Above 52-Week Average

The near-term outlook is bullish, with confirmation contingent on a sustained breakout above $62.49 and the 52-week moving average at $62.31. Together, these levels define trend direction and pattern confirmation. A decisive move above the long-term retracement at $63.74 would trigger additional upside potential toward the next swing top at $65.95. Downside risks remain limited while support at $59.44 holds.

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