Oil News: Market Stalls Between 50- and 200-Day Averages, Volatility Ahead

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Traders Eye Moving Averages, Geopolitics, and Inventories

Crude oil futures are inching higher in Thursday trading, but price action remains confined within yesterday’s range, pointing to indecision among traders. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is finding support near its 200-day moving average at $64.09, while resistance is building around the 50-day moving average at $65.30—two critical technical levels that could dictate the next breakout.

A sustained move above $65.30 could open the door for a test of the pivot level at $67.08. On the downside, a drop through $64.09 may expose $63.64 and $62.69, with the latter potentially triggering a sharper downside extension.

At 10:28 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $64.82, up $0.47 or +0.73%.

Potential Trump-Putin Meeting Complicates Oil Prices Forecast

WTI and Brent futures found support early Thursday after steep losses in the prior session, which marked five straight days of declines. A key driver behind recent price pressure has been U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about “great progress” in negotiations with Russia, raising speculation that potential sanctions could be eased.

Reports from the Kremlin now confirm that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in the coming days. This has sparked uncertainty over the timing and severity of possible secondary sanctions—particularly those targeting Russian oil exports.

Adding to market jitters, the U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 28, citing New Delhi’s continued Russian oil purchases. Trump also signaled that more tariffs on Chinese imports could follow, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to crude demand forecasts.

Saudi Price Hike and Chinese Imports Offer Fundamental Support

On the fundamentals front, bullish signals are emerging. Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for Asia for a second straight month, underscoring tight physical markets and strong demand. In China, July crude oil imports declined 5.4% month-on-month but were still 11.5% higher than a year earlier, supporting expectations for continued robust refining activity.

Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data added another pillar of support. The Energy Information Administration reported a 3 million-barrel draw in crude stocks last week—well above the expected 591,000-barrel drop.

WTI Outlook Hinges on Technical Levels and Sanction Clarity

Despite signs of stabilization, crude remains in a precarious spot. Geopolitical developments—particularly around the Trump-Putin summit and U.S. sanctions—continue to overshadow supportive fundamentals like inventory draws and Saudi pricing strength.

Forecast: Unless WTI can sustain a breakout above $65.30, further downside risk remains. The broader tone stays cautious, with traders awaiting clearer policy signals before betting on a sustained rally.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.