Oil News: OPEC vs IEA Outlook Splits Traders on Oil Demand and Supply Risks

Crude Oil Futures Recover as Buyers Defend Key Support Levels

Light crude oil futures are bouncing back early Friday after yesterday’s sharp sell-off, with buyers stepping in near the intraday low of $61.69. That defense aligns with the September 5 bottom at $61.45 and the August 13 low at $61.12, reinforcing these levels as firm technical support.

The rebound leaves futures up about 1.34% for the week, but momentum remains capped at the 200-day moving average of $63.30. A sustained push above this barrier could spark a rally toward the 50-day moving average at $64.30 and the long-term 50% retracement at $64.56. Beyond that, the $66.18 level remains a critical ceiling for any meaningful bullish extension.

At 10:07 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.57, up $0.20 or +0.32%.

OPEC and IEA Diverge on Oil Prices Forecast

Fresh supply forecasts are weighing on sentiment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Thursday that global supply growth will outpace prior projections due to planned output increases from OPEC+ producers, including Russia.

By contrast, OPEC’s own monthly report reaffirmed its higher oil demand growth outlook, citing steady global economic momentum. This divergence highlights the market’s central tension: while OPEC sees demand support, traders remain wary of an oversupplied market that could drag futures lower if consumption lags.

Middle East and Russia Risks Support Oil Prices Projections

Supply disruption risk continues to act as a counterbalance to bearish oversupply expectations. A drone strike on Russia’s Primorsk port—one of its largest export hubs—set fire to a vessel and a pumping station, underscoring the vulnerability of key infrastructure.

The incident adds to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from conflicts in both the Middle East and Ukraine, reinforcing the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.

India’s Import Policies Put Pressure on Russian Flows

On the physical side, India’s Adani Group—the country’s largest private port operator—has barred tankers under Western sanctions from entering its ports. Since India is the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, this move could disrupt flows and complicate Moscow’s efforts to reroute exports under sanctions pressure.

Combined with potential secondary sanctions on Russian crude buyers, traders are keeping a close eye on India’s import policies as a potential swing factor for seaborne supplies.

Market Forecast: Bullish Above $63.30, But Resistance Remains Heavy

Crude oil is holding support at recent lows while geopolitical risks and refined product tightness continue to underpin prices. However, oversupply concerns and resistance at $63.30 remain immediate hurdles.

If buyers push through that level, momentum could target $64.30–64.56 before testing the heavier ceiling at $66.18. Until then, price action suggests a cautious but slightly bullish tilt, with traders watching supply risks to sustain upward momentum.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.