Oil News: Technical Analysis Points to $62.69 If WTI Breaks Below 200-Day Average

OPEC+ Output Hike and Tariff Threats Pressure Oil Prices

Crude prices pulled back Tuesday as rising OPEC+ output and fading geopolitical supply fears weighed on market sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipped 1.2% to $65.50, while Brent fell 1% to $68.06, extending Monday’s losses and marking the lowest close in over a week.

OPEC+ Supply Adds to Downward Pressure

OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) confirmed they will increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, effectively bringing an earlier end to their voluntary supply cuts. The move signals confidence in supply-side stability, but for traders, it adds a bearish undertone to short-term pricing. With global balances loosening, the market is showing signs of recalibrating from recent tightness.

This production decision directly challenges recent support levels, particularly as WTI now sits precariously above its 200-day moving average of $64.08. A break below this could open downside toward $62.69.

Geopolitical Risk Discounted by Market

Concerns over a supply shock from India’s Russian oil imports eased after markets shrugged off U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats. Trump warned of higher tariffs on Indian goods over its continued purchases of Russian seaborne crude, which average 1.75 million bpd year-to-date. However, traders appear unconvinced that Washington will escalate trade actions enough to disrupt oil flows.

India’s government dismissed the threats as “unjustified” and emphasized its commitment to economic self-interest. For now, the market appears to have discounted the likelihood of real supply disruptions stemming from this diplomatic standoff.

Demand Risks From U.S. and China Cloud Outlook

JPMorgan flagged heightened risks of a U.S. recession, adding to global demand concerns. Simultaneously, China’s Politburo meeting revealed a shift in economic focus away from stimulus and toward structural rebalancing. Traders remain cautious, with limited expectations for a near-term consumption boost from the world’s second-largest economy.

This combination of sluggish demand signals from both major economies has softened bullish conviction across the energy complex.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Below Key Technical Levels

Technically, WTI has broken back below the $67.31 level, with additional resistance near $68.34 and $70.51. The failure to sustain above these zones suggests upside exhaustion. Immediate support lies at $65.00 and $64.08; a decisive break lower could trigger a move toward $62.69.

With OPEC+ production rising and macro demand signals weakening, the short-term outlook for crude is bearish unless prices reclaim the $67.31 pivot level.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.