Oil News: Traders Eye Key $69.89 Pivot With Oil Futures Pressured by Tariffs

Crude Oil Edges Lower as Traders Gauge $69.89 Pivot and Trump Tariff Threats

Light crude oil futures softened early Thursday as traders kept a close eye on the technical pivot at $69.89. Price action around this 50% short-term retracement is key to market sentiment.

A sustained move above this level could open the door to a rally targeting $77.09 and resistance near $77.64.

Conversely, failure to hold above $69.89 may drag prices down toward $66.60 and potentially deeper support levels at $65.38, $64.60 (50-day MA), and $64.06 (200-day MA).

At 10:06 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $69.42, down $0.58 or -0.83%.

Trump’s Tariff Pressure and Russia Sanctions Raise Oil Market Uncertainty

Oil prices are under pressure as traders evaluate the potential supply consequences from former President Donald Trump’s call for immediate tariffs on Russia and its trading partners. Trump pledged to enact 100% secondary tariffs unless progress is made in Ukraine negotiations within 10–12 days, an acceleration from a previously stated 50-day deadline. The U.S. has also warned China—Russia’s top crude buyer—of possible punitive trade measures.

Analysts remain hesitant to fully price in the threat given Trump’s historical inconsistency on trade policy. Still, the risk of reduced Russian oil exports looms if the rhetoric materializes into action. Adding to supply-side concerns, the U.S. Treasury slapped fresh sanctions on over 115 Iran-linked entities, underscoring the administration’s tightening pressure on key producers.

Crude Inventory Builds While Gasoline Draw Indicates Resilient Demand

U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose by 7.7 million barrels last week to 426.7 million barrels, sharply contrasting with analyst expectations for a 1.3 million barrel draw. The surprise build stemmed from a drop in exports. However, gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels, far outpacing estimates, suggesting continued strength in domestic driving demand.

According to Fujitomi Securities, the data presented a mixed picture—supportive for refined products but bearish for crude. Traders viewed the net result as broadly neutral for oil markets.

Federal Reserve Stays on Hold, but Dissent Signals Possible September Shift

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, though two governors dissented in favor of cuts—a rare event. Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that no decision had been made for the September meeting, disappointing traders who had priced in a higher probability of easing.

GDP growth at 3% and moderating inflation (2.1% headline, 2.5% core) bolstered the argument for looser policy. Yet Powell emphasized inflation vigilance, especially in light of tariff-related risks. The chance of a September cut dropped to 46% from 64% post-announcement, tightening financial conditions slightly.

Outlook: Cautiously Bearish Below $69.89 With Key Macro Risks in Play

Crude oil’s technical indecision at $69.89, coupled with rising geopolitical and policy headwinds—from Trump’s tariff threats to mixed Fed signals—suggests a cautiously bearish short-term outlook. Unless bulls reclaim and hold above the pivot, further downside toward mid-$60s support zones remains a strong probability.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.