Oil News: WTI Rejected at 50-Day MA, Pressured by Iran Deal, OPEC Production

Crude Oil Steady as Supply Risks Counter Trade War Relief

Light crude oil futures hovered near flat on Friday, as traders struggled to break a two-day losing streak and reassessed the path forward after earlier gains lost steam near technical resistance levels. WTI surged to $63.43 earlier in the week but encountered stiff resistance at the 50-day moving average of $63.20, with additional pressure from a longer-term pivot at $62.59.

At 10:36 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $61.14, down $0.01 or -0.02%.

OPEC+ Supply Outlook and Iran Deal Keep Bulls in Check

While prices are on track for a modest weekly gain—about 1%—the potential for increased supply continues to cap upside. OPEC+ is pressing ahead with its plan to unwind voluntary production cuts, a move that adds barrels into an already sensitive market. Ongoing nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran also threaten to expand global crude supply, with ING estimating Iran could add up to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions are lifted.

The pressure intensified following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting progress in talks, though sources confirmed key issues remain unresolved. Iranian barrels have continued flowing, particularly to China, dampening bullish sentiment around any near-term supply constraints.

Federal Reserve and China Trade Talks Offer Some Demand Support

Offsetting the supply concerns was optimism tied to macroeconomic developments. The market got a brief boost from the trade ceasefire between the U.S. and China. The two economic heavyweights agreed to a 90-day pause in tariff escalations, easing fears of a demand slump driven by slower global growth. Still, analysts caution the limited duration of the agreement and the lack of clarity on long-term trade policies restrain any sustained price rally.

Traders are also eyeing the U.S. Federal Reserve for signs of interest rate cuts, which could buoy economic growth and support oil demand. However, no definitive signals have emerged, leaving rate speculation in limbo.

IEA Supply Projections Add to Cautious Tone

Adding further caution, the International Energy Agency raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast by 380,000 barrels per day. While demand projections were also slightly revised up, the net result pointed to a projected surplus, reinforcing the market’s hesitancy to push higher.

Crude Oil Market Outlook: Bearish Tilt with Resistance Intact

Despite a weekly gain, the market remains capped by technical and fundamental resistance. The inability to clear the 50-day moving average at $63.20, combined with looming supply from OPEC+ and Iran, shifts the short-term bias to the downside. Key support lies near $59.13—the pivot of the $54.83–$63.43 trading range—and a break below this level could invite further selling. Without a confirmed bullish catalyst, the forecast leans bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.