Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – OPEC Has to Start Talking About Production Cuts to Stop Price Slide

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international- benchmark Brent crude oil futures remained under pressure on Thursday as the month-long liquidation continued in response to signs of rising supply and worries that a global economic slowdown might weaken demand. In October, WTI crude oil settled 10.9 percent lower, while Brent finished 8.8 percent lower for the month.

At 0935 GMT, December WTI Crude Oil futures are trading $64.77, down $0.55 or -0.84%, and January Brent Crude Oil is at $74.21, down $0.83 or 1.10%.

Supply Primary Price Driver

The catalyst behind the latest bout of selling pressure is Wednesday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventories report which showed crude inventories climbed for a sixth straight week.

In other news, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC boosted oil production in October to its highest level since 2016. Traders said increased production from the United Arab Emirates and Libya more than offset a cut in Iranian shipments due to U.S. sanctions, set to start on November.

Furthermore, President Trump even said on Wednesday in a presidential memorandum that he had determined there was sufficient supply of petroleum and petroleum products from nations other than Iran to permit a reduction in purchases from that country.

Lower Demand Close Behind but More Speculative

Traders said growing concerns over the prospect of a global slowdown amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. In this case it’s “the prospect” of a global slowdown that is driving the price action. This encouraging aggressive speculators to sell futures.

Forecast

There is nothing magical about the prolonged decline in crude oil prices. Although earlier last month some traders were calling for Brent crude to trade $85 to $100 over the near-term, the fundamentals changed quickly and then the hedge funds started liquidating their long positions. Throw in unexpected stock market weakness and volatility as well as a stronger U.S. Dollar and the rout was on.

At this point in the sell-off, some traders are already predicting the next short-term rally will likely be related initially to technically oversold conditions.

We could also see a short-term spike in prices if there is a one-time event like a supply disruption.

However, if you’re looking for a long-term solution to falling prices, you’re going to have to wait until one or more of the Big 3 – Russia, U.S. or Saudi Arabia – cutback on production.