Overbought On Paper, Underpriced In Reality. Why GSC Analysts Expect $5,000 Gold and $75 Silver

Gold’s surge past $4,300 an ounce and Silver’s climb beyond $54 have fuelled speculation across Wall Street and Main Street alike: is this the near-term top – or merely the calm before the next parabolic run higher?

According to Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club, the answer lies in perspective.

“What we’re witnessing isn’t the end of the move – it’s the beginning of a much larger structural shift,” Hansen says. “The same macro forces that drove Gold to record highs are still accelerating, not fading.”

Hansen points to a convergence of powerful drivers: falling real yields, surging central-bank Gold purchases and a U.S dollar in decline – all of which continue to support the metals’ long-term trajectory.

The Foundation of a Supercycle

The numbers back it up. According to data tracked by The Gold & Silver Club – after chalking up 39 new all-time highs in 2024 – equalling the frenzy of the Global Financial Crisis peak in 2011 – Gold has smashed through that benchmark in 2025.

So far this year, the yellow metal has notched an extraordinary 43 record highs, officially surpassing last year’s tally to deliver its strongest yearly rally in over five decades.

To put that in perspective: over the past 22 months, Gold has posted an astonishing 82 fresh record highs. That’s the equivalent of four fresh record highs every single month without fail for nearly two years. That pace of wealth creation is unprecedented!

“The last time we saw momentum of this magnitude was in 1979,” Hansen notes. “Back then, Gold rallied 800% and Silver over 1,000%. Today’s setup is eerily similar – only this time the monetary backdrop is even more extreme.”

Overbought or Just Getting Started?

Technical indicators suggest both metals may be overextended in the short term. A brief consolidation or pullback wouldn’t surprise seasoned traders. But historically, such pauses have acted as springboards, not ceilings.

“Traders shouldn’t confuse exhaustion with completion,” Hansen warns. “Markets rarely move in straight lines. But when the consolidation ends – and it will – the next phase could make today’s highs look cheap.”

That view aligns with forecasts from leading banks. Goldman Sachs recently lifted its Gold target to $4,900 by 2026, while UBS stated that a decline in real interest rates, possibly into negative territory, could push gold prices toward $4,700. The Gold & Silver Club’s in-house models project a base-case target of $5,000 for Gold and $75 for Silver within the next 12 months – describing those figures as “conservative.”

The Great Debasement Trade

What makes this cycle unique, Hansen explains, is that it’s not just about inflation – it’s about trust.

“Traders and Investors have realized that every major currency is being debased simultaneously,” he says. “This is the essence of what we call the Debasement Trade – the global shift from paper promises to hard assets.”

That shift, Hansen argues, is no longer confined to institutional players. “From pension funds to private investors, the message is spreading fast: metal is real, and money isn’t.”

While Gold and Silver may experience short-term pauses, the structural drivers – monetary debasement, fiscal dominance and de-dollarization – remain firmly in place. For long-term Traders and Investors, the bigger risk isn’t being too early. It’s being too late.

“Every major bull market gives investors one chance to position before the real explosion,” Hansen concludes. “This is that moment. History doesn’t ring a bell at the top – but it often whispers at the bottom of the next leg higher.”

The only question is: Are you positioned to capitalize on the greatest financial shift of our lifetime – or are you still watching from the sidelines?