US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Steadies Ahead of Lagarde and Waller Speeches – GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around $98.71, showing mild consolidation after mixed data releases from Europe and the UK. Germany’s PPI fell 0.1% in September, signaling persistent pricing weakness, while the Eurozone Current Account surplus narrowed sharply to €11.9 billion from €29.8 billion previously, highlighting slower trade activity.

In the UK, Rightmove’s House Price Index rose 0.3%, offering limited relief to a cooling housing sector.

Pound Gains as Borrowing Beats Forecasts

Sterling saw a modest lift after the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at £20.2 billion, slightly better than forecasts of £20.7 billion and up from £15.3 billion in the prior month.

The data supported short-term confidence in fiscal management, even as broader economic risks remain.

Events Ahead: Central Banks in Focus

Later today, speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and FOMC Member Christopher Waller will be closely watched for policy cues.

Lagarde’s remarks could hint at the Eurozone’s inflation path and growth concerns, while Waller’s comments may clarify the Fed’s outlook amid rising expectations of another rate cut this quarter.

U.S. government data releases remain uncertain due to the ongoing federal shutdown, which may delay key reports.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near $98.71, attempting to stabilize after rebounding from $98.02 support. On the 2-hour chart, the price is hovering slightly above the 200-EMA ($98.47) and 50-EMA ($98.60), showing signs of consolidation. Immediate resistance is seen near $98.80, aligned with a previous breakdown level.

A close above this could open the path toward $99.08, while failure to hold above the EMAs might invite renewed selling toward $98.38 or $98.02. The RSI at 60 suggests moderate bullish momentum, though not yet in overbought territory.

Overall, DXY appears to be stabilizing within a short-term range, awaiting fresh catalysts from macroeconomic data or policy headlines.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3395, holding just above the 1.3380 support zone after failing to sustain gains above the 50-EMA (1.3404) and 200-EMA (1.3411). The pair continues to face resistance from a descending trendline extending from the early October highs around 1.3472, keeping the broader outlook bearish.

A drop below 1.3380 could accelerate losses toward 1.3313, while a close above 1.3420 may signal a short-term recovery toward 1.3470.

The RSI near 43 reflects weak momentum and limited bullish conviction, suggesting that sellers still hold the upper hand unless buyers defend current levels with strong volume support.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.1634, struggling to stay above the 50-EMA at 1.1650, while the 200-EMA at 1.1662 continues to act as resistance. The pair remains capped by a descending trendline from the early October highs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Immediate support lies at 1.1599, and a break below this level could expose 1.1545. The RSI at 39 signals weak momentum, showing limited buying interest for now.

Unless buyers push the price above 1.1662, the outlook stays bearish, with sellers likely to dominate short-term moves. A close above 1.1670, however, could invalidate the bearish bias and pave the way toward 1.1727 resistance.