Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to decline to 1131.60 down $4.30 as predicted in our monthly report. Gold is expected to continue to decline up to the FOMC decision in December. It may have a few up days but in the near term the bears will win out. Silver eased 78 points to 15.33 and Platinum fell $8.15 to 970.25.

Gold firmed after a four-day decline on Tuesday but languished near a four-week low as investors dumped the metal on expectations the Federal Reserve would hike US rates this year.

The Fed last week firmly put a December rate rise in play, hurting earlier views that the increase in nearly a decade could be pushed to next year on global growth concerns.

As a non-interest-paying asset, gold demand could take a hit from higher rates, while a stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. US economic data on Monday was supportive of a rate hike this year. Manufacturing activity in October hit a 2-1/2-year low, but a rise in new orders offered hope the United States might have seen its worst.

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.43 percent to 689.28 tonnes on Monday, the lowest in three weeks. The fund hasn’t seen any inflow since Oct. 19. Speculators have trimmed bullish bets on gold from an 8-1/2-month high, data last week showed.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction