September Calls: Oil and Platinum Outlook

The most anticipated release of the week — the CPI report — confirmed that inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target. However, the data didn’t show any acceleration, which gave the market some comfort. At the same time, the jobless claims number jumped to the highest level in nearly four years. That move was enough for traders to start betting more aggressively on a rate cut already next week, as the Fed may try to balance out the rapid slowdown in the labor market.

The reaction in markets was immediate: Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield briefly dipping below 4%. US stocks staged a broad advance — all major benchmarks renewed record highs, while small caps surged 1.8%. Gold once again made history, surpassing its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980. Meanwhile, energy shares corrected alongside oil prices. After hours, Adobe Inc. published a strong outlook, supporting the tech sector.

The bigger picture is that the cooling labor market has clearly shifted expectations toward a more aggressive pace of easing. Jerome Powell already signaled such a possibility during his Jackson Hole speech last month, and the latest data confirmed the hiring slowdown has stretched into August.

Gold had slowed down the pace, while previous metals rebounded – Platinum and Silver have rebounded after Gold. Energy markets consolidated, which is normal for the transition period between the injection and withdrawal periods for Crude oil.

Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast

Global oil prices are under pressure, with Brent expected to decline significantly in the coming months. Forecasts point to a slide from $68/b in August toward $59/b on average in Q4 2025, and even closer to $50/b in early 2026. The main driver is the rapid inventory build, with OPEC+ and other producers boosting supply by more than 2 million barrels per day.

The recent announcement from OPEC+ to increase production further in October only strengthens this bearish outlook. That said, such low prices are likely unsustainable — if Brent remains near $50/b, supply cuts from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers may follow later in 2026, potentially stabilizing the market.

Crude Oil Outlook

The price consolidates around the dynamic resistance area of $63-64, and may try to retest it again before starting another downswing. The sentiment for Crude oil in particular and for energy assets in general remains muted (though, stocks of the energy sector display modest gains).

According to supply/demand estimation from eia.gov, pressure for Crude oil futures will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, so the sentiment remains bearish, which is also confirmed by the price action.

Platinum Outlook

Platinum is positioned near the dynamic support area, and may climb higher as rotation in the metals market continues.

Platinum moved toward $1,410/oz, the highest this month, supported by persistent supply deficits. The World Platinum Investment Council projects a structural shortfall of about 850 koz in 2025, with supply near a five-year low. Despite elevated prices, output is unlikely to recover soon.

While industrial demand faces pressure from the global slowdown, investment and jewelry demand—especially in China—remains strong. Platinum also looks attractive versus gold, with Fed rate-cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical tensions adding further support.