Crude oil has bounced from key support near $55, but skepticism remains about any sustained upside. With rising production and slowing economic conditions, rallies are viewed as potential selling opportunities rather than a trend change as conditions are so poor.
The light sweet crude oil market has rallied quite nicely during the early hours here on Wednesday, bouncing from the crucial $55 level, which is where the double bottom formed back in April. The question is, did this market just save itself from really falling apart? We’ll have to wait and see at the moment, but the upside still is not trusted until it can really prove itself.
Anytime this market rallies, signs of exhaustion are being watched for to start shorting again. That has not changed. In fact, the market would have to gain at least another $5 to become convincing, as Russia, OPEC, and the United States all get aggressive with their production of oil. At the same time, there is a broader economic slowdown. With all of that being said, it is very difficult for this market to rally for any significant amount of time.
Brent did the same thing, with its support level right around $58.50. Again, the market would need to rally about $5 to even have the conversation of buying. Typically, the idea of buying crude oil would at least be entertained, but it has been such a relentless grind lower in this market. The market is below the price point where sanctions against Russia were announced, which shows how bad this setup is. The hope is for a rally of a few dollars that shows signs of exhaustion in order to start shorting this market. At this point, I have no real interest in buying oil in these conditions.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.