Silver Fundamental Analysis April 27, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver taking cues from rise in gold prices and upside in base metals pack, spot silver prices traded slightly higher by 0.1 percent today. Additionally, a weaker dollar index also helped upside in prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $ 30.92/oz and was trading at $ 30.862/oz.

Commodities were on a greener turf bolstered by the U.S Federal Reserve comments over the U.S economy and reassurance that it was ready to provide monetary stimulus to the economy if necessary. Spot gold firmed up helped by Fed’s comments and a weaker dollar. Base metals in LME and Shanghai rose with LME copper inching up to a two week high.

However, gains were limited on concerns over demand from China. MCX base metal complex rose too with nickel being the best performer, advancing at least a per cent. Optimistic view of the Fed over the state of U.S economy lifted crude oil prices to almost one week high.

However, waning worries over Iran after its envoy in Moscow said that the country may halt the expansion of its atomic program to avert new sanctions may weigh on. Earlier, Euro-Area April economic confidence fell to 92.8, further bolstering belief that the spreading debt contagion is taking its toll on key economic indicators.

US unemployment data was disappointing today, while US pending home sales showed a spark of life.

Economic Data for April 26, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 27, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets

06:00     EUR        Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (May)                                             

The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn

n/a         GBP       Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) (Mar)    

The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK’s economy.

n/a         GBP       Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (Mar)    

The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK’s economy.

09:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator (Apr)                                       

The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator is released by the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research and it’s a joint survey with leading indicator which measures future trends of the overall economic activity. It captures the movement of GDP growth and the economic trend in Switzerland

12:30     USD       Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1)                                            

The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or decreasing.

12:30     USD       Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index (Q1)                       

The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise.

12:30     USD       Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q1

The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation.

13:55     USD       Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)     

The Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the Reuters/University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   Eur 1.5-2.5bn 4.75% May 2017 & Eur 1.5-2.5bn 5.5% Sep 2022 & Eur

0.75-1.25bn 3.75% Apr 2016 & 4.25% Feb 2019 BTPs

May 01  09:30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 Conventional Gilt

May 02  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

May 02  09:30  Portugal  Eur 1.25-1.5bn new Nov 2012 & new May 2013 T-bills

May 02  13:00  US  Announces details of 3Y Notes on May 08, 10Y Notes on May 09 & 30Y

Bonds on May 10

May 02  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on May 09

May 03  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

May 03  08:50  France  OAT auction