Silver has started the New Year on a positive note and has crossed above the 18.00 level. We could see some further movement from silver during the day, with the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI (13:00 GMT) and the Federal Reserve minutes (17:00 GMT).
Silver has posted considerable gains in Friday trade. Currently, silver is trading at $18.16, up $0.13 or 0.74% on the day.
Silver continues to trade close to the 18.00 level this week. The pair tested this line on Thursday, and has continued to move higher on Friday. In the Asian session, the metal touched 18.27, its highest level since late October.
Although silver posted strong gains in late December, it has had trouble remaining above the 18.00 line, so it remains unclear whether the upward momentum will continue or will silver prices retreat. With the markets still marked by thin volumes, traders should act with caution. The current environment is more favorable for short-term traders, who are comfortable with entering and exiting the market quickly.
The New Year’s holiday has caused a shift in the calendar, so there are two key events on the schedule. Manufacturing PMI is expected to accelerate, with an estimate of 49.0 December, up from 48.1 pts in November. Still, the manufacturing sector has looked weak, as the PMI has not pointed to expansion since July. We’ll get a look at the FOMC minutes from the December policy meeting, when rate-setters stayed on the sidelines and maintained the benchmark rate. Investors will be eager to gauge the mood of Fed policymakers – if the minutes are hawkish, this would raise investor risk appetite and could dampen the enthusiasm for safe-haven assets like silver.
The forecast for silver remains positive, despite the shooting star which followed the recent upward trend. On the downside, the round number of 18.00 has switched to a support role, followed by support at 17.50, followed closely by the 50-EMA line at 17.39. On the upside, there is resistance at 18.60, which has held since late September.
Kenny is an experienced market analyst, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny has over 15 years of experience across a broad range of markets and assets –forex, indices and commodities.
