Silver looks a little tired at this point, as the market has been “swimming upstream” against interest rates rising. We are now testing a ceiling in the market in the form of $90.
The silver market looks as if it is going to struggle to get to the $90 level. The $90 level of the course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that I think you will continue to see downward pressure. Ultimately, I believe this is a market that eventually will have to revert to the mean, and at this point, I think it’s an $80 region on this chart that is the most likely candidate.
To the downside we have $70, which is an absolute floor in the market. If we do break above the $90 level, then it opens up a move to the $100 level. The interest rates in America are extraordinarily high, and I think that will continue to work against silver over the longer term, but in the short term, we’ve actually ignored it, although it will be an issue given enough time.
A lot of this I think is starting to come down to the idea of perhaps supply not being able to keep up with demand. With this, I like the idea of maybe looking for a buy on the dip type of scenario. I don’t necessarily want to short this market because there is so much fundamental strength underneath, but I just don’t really think that chasing the market all the way up in this area is the smart move either. So, with that, I look at this as a market that is likely to continue to struggle but eventually will make a bigger move, probably to the upside.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.