Silver initially tried to rally during the Thursday session but has seen quite a bit of short-term resistance as has been the case for the last several days.
Silver initially tried to rally on Thursday but has turned around to show signs of hesitation again. By doing so it looks as if we continue to use the $24 level as a bit of support. And then underneath there I think you also have to look at the 50-day EMA.
The 50-day EMA is quite often used by traders as dynamic support and resistance, and the fact that it is starting to turn a little higher suggests that it may re-enter that kind of scheme. I recognize that the market has been very choppy as of late, but that does make a lot of sense, considering that we are between Christmas and New Year’s Day, which of course has a major influence on liquidity, something that you should be paying attention to. Ultimately, silver is a very erratic market under the best of conditions, so this week is particularly difficult for those trying to navigate the futures markets or even the CFD markets.
Another issue as well will be the bond market, as higher interest rates would work against silver, but as we’ve seen interest rates in the United States start to drop, especially after the latest Federal Reserve meeting, it’s likely that silver will continue to benefit from this. In that scenario, I anticipate that silver could go looking to the $26 level above, but that might be a move for January.
Any pullback at this point in time appears to be a buying opportunity on short-term charts, but a breakdown below the 50-day EMA could change things, perhaps opening up a move back down to the $22.80 level where we had lodged from a couple of weeks ago. Regardless, keep in mind that silver not only is sensitive to the interest rate situation, but it’s also sensitive to industrial use case as well, so if we do find ourselves heading into a recession, silver will get punished for that.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.