Silver has fallen initially during the trading session on Friday, but did find a bit of support near the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Silver continued to plunge a bit at the beginning of the session on Friday only to turn around and show signs of life. We are hanging around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to. At this point, whether or not we can bounce remains to be seen but we need to keep an eye on the $23 level above, due to the fact that it is psychologically important, and an area where we also have the 200-Day EMA hanging around in the same general vicinity, so I think given enough time, we will have to wait and see whether or not the market can overcome this level.
At this point, silver has essentially become a bit of a binary trade, in the sense that if we were to break down below the lows of the session, then I think silver really starts to unwind, taking the $22 support level head on, and breaking down below that opens up the floodgates for much lower silver prices, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move down to the $20 level. On the other side of the equation, if we were to take out the 200-Day EMA above, then the market could go looking to the 50-Day EMA, perhaps the $24 level.
All things being equal, the silver market is highly sensitive to the US dollar overall, as the negative correlation between silver and the US Dollar Index remains strong. In general, I think this is a situation where we are trying to put up a stand for the buyers, and now we are going to continue to see a lot of questions asked of this market. In general, I think this is a situation where we have to pay close attention to the next couple of candlesticks because it could give us a bit of a heads-up as to where we’re going long-term. Because of this, you need to be cautious with your position sizing more than anything else, as it’s the one thing that you can control if you get involved in what is very likely to be a volatile move.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.