Silver has gapped lower to kick off the Tuesday session, only to show signs of strength as we have rallied since then.
Silver was a bit wild early during the trading session on Tuesday, as we had gapped lower, only to turn around and show signs of life. All things being equal, this is a market that I think given enough time will try to work its way to the $24 level, perhaps even breaking above there. Ultimately, the market is likely to see a lot of choppy behavior, and of course the fact that it is silver is even worse.
Underneath, we have the 200-Day EMA offering a bit of support, and then of course we have the 50-Day EMA trying to turn around and break above the 200-Day EMA, it suggests that we are about to see the “golden cross” yet again. The market breaking out to the upside opens up the possibility of the market heading to the $25 level, which opens up a move to the double top near the $25.50 level.
Underneath, if we were to break down below the moving averages, it’s possible that the market could go down to the $22 level, where we had bounced from after the inflation numbers were lower than anticipated in the United States. This suggests that people are still hoping that the Federal Reserve is going to loosen their monetary policy, but at this point in time it’s very unlikely that they do it in the short term. The hope at this point is more or less a situation where the market is going to see the Federal Reserve at least posits monetary policy, and that’s reason enough for the traders out there to celebrate. Whether or not that is the case longer-term remains to be seen, and of course the silver market has a negative correlation to the US dollar, so that’s something worth paying attention to as well.
I don’t have any interest in selling silver anytime soon, and I do think that pullbacks will continue to be potential buying opportunities, but you need to be very cautious jumping into this market. Furthermore, it’s also a market that you need to pay close attention to the fact that Thursday is Thanksgiving, and therefore we will be working with last time this week.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.