Silver has pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Monday, as it looks like we are running into a certain amount of exhaustion.
Silver looks a bit tired during the day on Monday, as the markets are sitting just below the 200-Day EMA. The 200-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people are paying close attention to, as it has offered resistance previously. The market has broken above there a couple of times, but it almost certainly shows signs of exhaustion. Above there, the $24 level offers significant resistance, and therefore I think you need to pay close attention to it. If silver were to break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the $25.50 level.
The other scenario of course is that we go back and forth in this general vicinity, with the $22.50 level underneath being an area of general support, and therefore I think you got a situation where we can bounce back and forth trying to figure out where we are going next. That makes quite a bit of sense, due to the fact that the silver markets are being thrown around by quite a few different things at the same time.
All things being equal, silver typically moves on interest rates, the US dollar, and industrial demand. Remember, while silver does have a lot of the same moves as gold, the reality is that the silver market also has to take in a lot of industrial demand questions as well. We have a situation where the market is trying to sort out whether or not we are going to see the economy pick up or if the economy is going to slow down. However, the market is likely to see the various wars around the world right now giving you an idea of why you need to have some type of “safety trade.” While I don’t like silver as a safety trade, it does serve that purpose from time to time.
In general, I think this is a situation where we are currently trying to work off a lot of froth, which of course we saw enter the market from the massive bounce at the bottom. If we can break out to the upside, I suspect it will bring in a huge rush and a massive “FOMO trade.”
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.