Silver has rallied significantly during the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we are reaching to the 200-Day EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that I think eventually takes off.
Silver has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Monday, reaching toward the 200-Day EMA, which is a large, round, psychologically important technical indicator, and an area that a lot of people pay close attention to regardless.
If we break above the top of the 200-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go look into the $25 level. The market continues to look at the overall picture of the market as being range bound, with the $22.50 level underneath being potential support, with the $25.50 level above being the top. The silver market has been highly sensitive to the US dollar, so therefore if the US dollar really starts to strengthen, that could be a bit of a headwind for the silver market. That being said, you should also pay close attention to the idea that we may have just formed a bit of a “double bottom”, which lines up nicely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
If we were to break down below the double bottom, then it opens up a move down to the $22 level, and breaking down below there then opens up the possibility of a move down to the $20 level. All things being equal, if we were to see that happen, we would also see a huge spike in the US dollar at the same time, therefore it’s likely that we see the market shake quite drastically.
On the other hand, if you were to see silver take off from here, it almost certainly has to do with a bit of a breather from the greenback, as it seems to be turning around during the day on Monday, perhaps if we get a little bit of a move between now and Friday, it might be people trying to square up positions before the Jackson Hole Symposium discussion and speech by Jerome Powell which obviously will have a major influence on what happens with the greenback. All things being equal, at the very least you have to look at this as a range bound market.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.