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Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast
Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast
Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver had an interesting week with precious metals remaining weak and gold closing the week lower, silver closed at 32.330 after beginning the week at 33.153 also down for the week but industrial metal helped limit silvers losses after China’s HSBC PMI manufacturing report showed a continued expansion.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 14, 2012

32.330

32.620

32.793

32.248

-0.87%

Dec 13, 2012

32.615

33.408

33.428

32.287

-2.39%

Dec 12, 2012

33.412

33.028

33.870

32.995

1.16%

Dec 11, 2012

33.030

33.295

33.310

32.843

-0.81%

Dec 10, 2012

33.300

33.153

33.493

33.148

0.44%

The data not only climbed in the 50 territory but also beat the prior months report, after showing contraction for the last 6 months, it seems as though Chinese production is back into full production mode.

Precious metals waned towards the end of the week as traders looked for more risk and others left the markets ahead of a final deal in the US to avoid the fiscal cliff scenario. The deal which will be struck at the last minute will have a lot of tax increases which might affect the value of trades and profit, so traders are taking gains and losses ahead of the unknown. The US budget and tax negotiation will remain the main focus this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 10

CNY

Chinese Trade Balance 

19.60B

25.70B

32.00B

Dec. 11

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-9%

-7%

-7%

 

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

 

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

6.9

-12.0

-15.7

 

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

7.6

0.1

-2.6

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-42.2B

-42.6B

-40.3B

 Dec. 12

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

 

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

0.0%

0.1%

 

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.8%

1.9%

1.8%

 

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

-3.0K

7.0K

6.0K

 

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.4%

0.2%

-2.3%

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.9%

-0.5%

0.3%

 

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.652%

 

1.675%

 

USD

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-172.1B

-150.0B

-120.0B

 Dec. 13

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

-0.3%

-0.1%

 

CHF

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

 

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-12

-16

-21

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2%

-0.2%

 

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

-0.8%

-0.5%

-0.2%

 

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

0.5%

-0.3%

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

343K

370K

372K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3198K

3210K

3221K

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.8%

2.3%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.2%

2.1%

Dec. 14

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

50.50

 

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.6

45.0

44.5

 

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

47.2

46.8

 

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

46.6

46.2

 

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

 

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

 

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

1.5%

1.5%

 

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.9%

2.2%

 

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

 

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.1%

0.3%

-0.7%

 

ARS

Argentinian CPI (MoM) 

0.9%

0.7%

0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 28.468 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Dec. 17

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-1.0

-5.2

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B

 Dec. 18

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.7%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.5%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-103.5B

-117.4B

Dec. 19

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.0

101.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

108.0

108.1

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

96.3

95.2

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

25

33

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.875M

0.868M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.870M

0.894M

Dec. 20 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.5%

0.6%

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

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