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Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 24-28, 2012, Forecast
Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis Date, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast
Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis Date, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver bounced around all week and looked to be headed below the 30.00 mark but was able to close the week at 30.43 following cues from gold and the precious metals which rebounded on Friday as market sentiment turned to risk off and safe trades. Industrial metals remained weak as growth and the US recovery are up in the air as US policymakers seem to have hit a wall in recent negotiations.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 21, 2012

30.043

30.015

30.315

29.673

0.09%

Dec 20, 2012

30.017

31.110

31.273

29.660

-3.53%

Dec 19, 2012

31.115

31.813

31.862

31.033

-2.22%

Dec 18, 2012

31.820

32.313

32.597

31.413

-1.54%

Dec 17, 2012

32.317

32.373

32.483

32.090

-0.18%

Fiscal cliff negotiations continue to drag on after Speaker of the House of Representatives John Boehner was unable to muster enough votes within his own party over an alternative plan of spending cuts and tax hikes known as “Plan B.” At a press conference Friday morning, Boehner reiterated the need for political leaders to come together. Congressional leaders leave Friday for the Christmas holiday, but they can come back Dec. 27 and continue to discuss alternatives.

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17

00:01

GBP

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-3.3%

 

-2.6%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-8.1

-1.0

-5.2

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

1.3B

25.0B

3.2B

Dec. 18 

09:30

GBP

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.7%

2.6%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.6%

2.7%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.1%

0.1%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.3%

-0.5%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-107.5B

-103.4B

-118.1B

Dec. 19

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.4

102.0

101.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

107.1

108.0

108.1

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

97.9

96.3

95.2

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

19

25

33

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.899M

0.875M

0.868M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.861M

0.873M

0.888M

 Dec. 20

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

0.3%

-0.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.9%

1.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

357K

344K

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

3.1%

2.8%

2.7%

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3225K

3199K

3213K

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.04M

4.87M

4.76M

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

8.1

-3.0

-10.7

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.6

5.9

5.8

 

09:30

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ) 

3.8%

3.5%

3.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-12.8B

-14.0B

-17.4B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.9%

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.6%

-0.2%

1.9%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.7%

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

0.3%

-0.1%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

72.9

74.7

74.5

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 28.468 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 28

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

07:45

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.2%

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