The silver market fell rather significantly during the trading week, as it looks like we are now threatening the $18 level yet again.
Silver has fallen rather hard during the course of the week, showing signs of weakness yet again. The $18 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area that has been significant support previously. If we break down below there, then we could open up the possibility of moving down to the $15.00 level. Clearly, this is a very bearish weekly candlestick, and it does suggest that we have further to go over the longer term.
The US dollar continues to be like a wrecking ball for almost everything out there, and silver is especially sensitive to the value of the US dollar. Interest rates continue to rise, and of course the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy. If that’s going to be the case, then it’s likely that industrial demand will get crushed, as we are more likely than not going to head into a global recession. If we find ourselves in that recession, it’s difficult to imagine that silver will take off anytime soon.
However, if the Federal Reserve decides to change its overall tone, then we could see silver rally, but I think we are pretty far from that happening. Because of this, I believe that we’ve got a situation where the market is going to continue to be very noisy, but eventually we could see a massive move to the upside in a longer-term “buy-and-hold” situation once the Federal Reserve turns things around. At this point, we are still very much in a range, but I think in the meantime it’s very difficult to imagine getting bullish on this market anytime soon.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.