Silver (XAG) Forecast: 50-Day Average in Focus as Silver Bounces on Fed Uncertainty

Silver Traders Eye Fed Minutes, 50-Day Average for Breakout Signal

Silver prices are firming midweek, bouncing off intraday lows near $36.96 as buyers stepped in to defend key technical levels. The rebound puts the market right back into a critical decision zone, straddling both the 50-day moving average and an established pivot at $37.40. This price action mirrors gold’s own attempt to reclaim its 50-day average, as both metals respond to the same monetary and geopolitical crosscurrents.

At 14:41 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $37.76, up $0.39

Dollar Steady but Fed Outlook Keeps Metals in Focus

The U.S. dollar index was flat after tagging a one-week high, maintaining pressure on precious metals. Traders are holding back from aggressive bets as they await two key events: the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole. Market odds currently price in an 83–85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, but that confidence is tempered by last week’s stronger-than-expected producer price index.

Fed Disagreement and Yield Levels Add to Market Uncertainty

Treasury yields remain stable with the 10-year at 4.30% and the 2-year near 3.74%, but the market isn’t ignoring the Fed’s internal dissent. The July FOMC minutes revealed that two governors opposed holding rates steady, suggesting deeper divisions inside the central bank. This could influence Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, particularly if he signals reluctance to ease policy in the face of lingering inflation pressures.

Geopolitics Offer Backstop Support for Metals

Geopolitical risk is providing a secondary tailwind for silver. Although President Trump ruled out deploying U.S. ground forces to Ukraine, he left open the possibility of U.S. air involvement. Traders have historically used precious metals like silver and gold to hedge geopolitical risks, and this remains a key theme behind the current bid tone.

Silver Outlook: All Eyes on the 50-Day Average

Silver’s technical outlook hinges on how the market handles the 50-day moving average at $37.40. A sustained break above this level would validate bullish control and align with gold’s attempt to breach its own 50-day marker at $3348.90.

Such a move could open the path toward secondary resistance at $37.47 and $37.87. On the flip side, failure to hold the average would shift control back to sellers, exposing the market to downside moves below $36.96. For now, the “buy the dip” strategy holds—but only if the 50-day moving average is reclaimed and defended.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.