Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Analysis Amid Weak Retail Sales Data and Dovish Fed Signals

Gold (XAU) price rebounded from its support level on Tuesday. This rebound was triggered by the release of U.S. retail sales data, which had fueled hopes for a December interest rate cut due to weak U.S. retail sales. The chart below shows that US retail sales increased by only 0.2% in September 2025, marking the smallest increase in four months.

Moreover, the US retail trade growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year in September 2025 from 5.0% in the previous month.

Spot gold consolidates near $4,150 per ounce and remains bullish after the release of the data within the positive structure. Traders interpreted the data and dovish Fed remarks as signs of easing monetary policy ahead.

The expectations for rate cuts have increased. The markets are now pricing in an 85% chance of a December cut, up from 50% just a week ago. The shift follows weaker retail sales data and stable producer price inflation. These conditions have renewed investor demand for gold, which typically benefits when borrowing costs decline.

Moreover, gold also benefits from rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Fed officials continue to express concern over the labor market, reinforcing the case for policy easing. With interest rates expected to remain low, the bullish momentum may persist into early 2026.

Gold Technical Analysis

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern since the bottom in August 2025. The correction from the record high of $4,380 found strong support at the lower boundary of this ascending wedge.

The price has also formed a symmetrical triangle within the ascending broadening wedge pattern. A breakout from this symmetrical triangle will likely introduce fresh buying pressure and could push the gold price toward the $4,400–$5,000 region.

The symmetrical triangle in spot gold is also visible on the 4-hour chart. It is observed that the price is consolidating near the edge of the pattern. A breakout above $4,250 will signal renewed bullish momentum and confirm the next upward move.

Silver Technical Analysis

The daily chart for spot silver (XAG) shows strong bullish momentum as the price has tested the 50-day SMA for the second time since correcting from the record high of $54.40. The rebound from the 50-day SMA has triggered fresh buying pressure in the spot silver market. This fresh buying is pushing the price back toward the record level near $54.50. The RSI continues to consolidate above the midpoint, indicating further upside in the coming days and weeks.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows strong bullish price action. The price has formed an inverted head‑and‑shoulders pattern above the $45.80 level. The recent correction tested support at $49.30, which corresponds to the neckline of the pattern, before rebounding sharply higher. This rebound from $49.30 is constructive and indicates further upside in the short term.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

The daily chart for the USD Index shows intense negative price action at the long-term resistance level of 100.50. The index is dropping after failing to break higher from the 100.50 level. As long as this key resistance holds, the overall direction of the USD Index remains bearish. Moreover, the RSI is retreating from its resistance zone, which signals continued short-term weakness.

The 4-hour chart below further confirms that the USD Index failed to break the strong resistance at 100.50 and continues to move lower. A break below the 98 level would signal further downside toward the 96.50 area. If the index falls below 96.50, it could trigger a sharper decline toward the 90 level.