Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Rate-Cut Odds Surge to 84% as Metals Extend Gains

Market Overview

Gold advanced toward a two-week high on Wednesday, lifted by renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve is preparing to ease policy at its December meeting. A series of softer U.S. economic releases—alongside increasingly dovish commentary from senior Fed officials—has pushed investors to reassess the path of interest rates and rotate into haven assets.

“Expectations are now being shaped more toward a December rate cut occurring,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade. “The case has been strengthened by a chorus of dovish remarks from Fed officials and benign economic data, which is boosting gold from a yield perspective.”

The shift in sentiment followed Tuesday’s economic reports showing U.S. retail sales rising less than expected in September and the Producer Price Index increasing 2.7% year over year, unchanged from August and below market expectations. The combination of tempered demand and controlled producer inflation reinforced the view that monetary policy may be tighter than necessary.

Softer Dollar and Lower Yields Support Precious Metals

The dollar slipped to a one-week low as traders speculated the next Federal Reserve chair may adopt a more accommodative stance. A weaker dollar tends to increase global appetite for gold and silver by lowering the cost of dollar-denominated commodities for overseas buyers.

U.S. Treasury yields also remained under pressure, with the benchmark 10-year note trading near one-month lows. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, historically strengthening demand for gold during periods when markets anticipate the Fed will ease.

Markets are now pricing an 84% probability of a December rate cut, sharply higher than the 50% odds seen last week, according to CME FedWatch data—marking one of the fastest shifts in rate expectations this quarter.

Silver Benefits From Broader Risk Repricing

Silver tracked the move in gold, supported by the same combination of a softer dollar, lower yields, and rising expectations for policy easing. While industrial demand remains mixed, the metal continues to benefit from its dual role as both a precious and industrial commodity, allowing it to capture haven flows without losing exposure to cyclical themes.

The next focal point for both metals will be the U.S. weekly jobless claims report, which may further influence rate expectations and guide market direction into the December policy meeting.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may retest $4,179 with support at $4,122, while silver targets $52.41–$53.31 if momentum holds. Failure to break resistance could trigger dips toward $51.00.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold continues to push toward the $4,179 resistance as price trades near the upper boundary of a contracting triangle pattern. The metal has held above the 20-EMA and recently reclaimed the 200-EMA, signaling improving short-term momentum.

A sequence of higher lows from the $4,005 region shows buyers steadily defending dips. The RSI is holding above 60, indicating firm but not overstretched momentum.

The triangle’s apex is tightening, and a close above $4,179 would open room toward $4,245. Failure to break higher could pull price back toward $4,122 or even $4,067 if momentum cools. Gold remains constructive as long as the rising trendline continues to hold.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver continues to climb within a rising channel, holding firm above both the 20-EMA and 200-EMA, which signals improving trend strength. Price is testing resistance near $52.41, a level that capped last week’s advance.

A break above this zone would open the path toward $53.31, followed by $54.44 if momentum accelerates. The RSI is trading above 60, showing steady bullish pressure without signs of exhaustion.

Higher lows from the $50.73 region reinforce the trend, while recent candles show consistent buying rather than sharp rejections. If silver fails to clear $52.41, support sits at $51.00, with deeper pullbacks likely finding buyers near $50.73 inside the channel.