Silver (XAG) Forecast: Critical $36.30 Support in Focus for Price Prediction

Silver Slides Below Key Levels as Fed Minutes and Tariffs Keep Traders on Edge

Silver extended losses for a second session, tracking weakness in gold as traders brace for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes and monitor U.S. tariff developments that are rattling broader markets. XAG/USD slipped below immediate resistance at $37.23 to $37.32, with sellers probing the critical short-term pivot at $36.30.

Fed Minutes: Will a Dovish Tilt Spark a Bid for Silver?

The market’s immediate focus is on the Fed’s June meeting minutes, with traders searching for any dovish signals that could pressure the dollar and yields, creating a supportive backdrop for silver. Gold’s current stall near its 50-day moving average at $3321.80 reflects a similar hesitation in precious metals as higher Treasury yields erode bullion’s appeal.

The 10-year yield has climbed to 4.415% following fresh U.S. tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, while the 30-year yield has edged up to 4.952%, underscoring the cost pressure on holding non-yielding assets like silver.

Tariffs Fuel Inflation Concerns Without Triggering a Breakout

President Trump’s announced tariffs of 25%–40% effective August 1 have revived trade tension risks, threatening to dent Asian growth while fueling inflation concerns. These mixed signals leave silver traders caught between inflation hedging potential and yield-driven headwinds.

UBS analysts noted that while tariffs could ultimately support metals through higher inflation, near-term market sentiment remains constrained by rising rates.

Critical Technical Zones in Focus for Silver

If silver fails to hold the $36.30 pivot, traders should prepare for a test of the major support zone between $35.40 and $34.87. The 50-day moving average at $34.60 will be critical in defending the current intermediate uptrend, with a break below this level likely to trigger additional liquidation as momentum traders step aside.

On the upside, reclaiming and holding above $37.32 would signal renewed buying, potentially opening a path to challenge higher ranges should the Fed deliver a dovish surprise.

Silver Market Outlook: Consolidation Until Catalyst Hits

For now, silver remains in a holding pattern, reflecting gold’s rangebound trade as markets await a clear catalyst from the Fed or sharper tariff escalations. A dovish Fed could trigger dollar weakness and yield relief, encouraging a bid in silver toward $37.32 and beyond.

Conversely, if Treasury yields continue climbing without relief, silver faces further downside pressure, risking a slide toward the 50-day average. Traders should expect volatility around the Fed minutes and prepare tactical positioning accordingly, keeping an eye on yield movements and inflation signals as the next drivers for silver’s direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.