Silver (XAG) Forecast: Gold Strength Could Be the Spark for 50-Day MA Breakout

Silver Eyes Breakout as Dollar Softens and Gold Offers Support

Silver prices are inching higher this week, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and gold’s continued strength. But while fundamentals remain supportive, silver still needs a definitive technical breakout to confirm bullish intent. Traders are watching closely as the metal approaches key resistance.

At 13:37 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $32.51, up $0.15 or +0.45%.

Silver Nears Key Resistance—Will $32.80 Break?

Silver is edging toward a potential breakout, trading just below its 50-day moving average at $32.80. A close above this level could unlock upside momentum, with $33.25 and $33.70 marked as the next bullish targets. The metal remains underpinned by firm support at $32.19, with additional downside buffers at $31.45 and $31.36—the latter being the 200-day moving average.

While silver is tracking higher on the back of gold’s gains, the technical setup remains less decisive. The market is still searching for a clear directional catalyst. A clean break above $32.80 would likely attract short-covering and fresh positioning from trend-following funds.

Gold Holds Firm as Dollar Weakens, Reinforcing Silver’s Bull Case

Gold continues to provide a tailwind, holding above $3228.38 and the 50-day moving average at $3175.80. Traders defended the $3120 zone during last week’s pullback, reinforcing the “buy-the-dip” mindset. With gold showing strong technical footing and climbing toward resistance at $3277.91, silver is benefiting from relative strength in the broader precious metals complex.

Dollar Weakness Deepens as Rate Cut Bets Strengthen

The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) has slipped another 0.2%, extending its drawdown to over 10% from early-year highs. Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and a surge in net dollar short positions—now at $17.32 billion—highlight growing investor unease with U.S. fiscal policy. These factors have revived the “Sell America” narrative, pressuring the dollar and lifting hard assets like silver and gold.

Fed Speeches Could Tip the Balance for Precious Metals

Markets are pricing in 54 basis points of rate cuts for the remainder of the year, with expectations for the first cut by October. Comments from Fed officials later this week could reinforce—or challenge—this view. A dovish tone would likely deepen dollar weakness and support further upside in silver and gold.

Outlook: Silver Needs Breakout Above $32.80 to Confirm Upside

While the broader setup favors higher silver prices, confirmation is still lacking. A decisive move above $32.80 would validate the bullish case and open the door to $33.25 and $33.70. Until then, silver remains rangebound—but supported—by both gold’s strength and a deteriorating dollar. Traders should stay alert: silver’s next move could come quickly once key levels are breached.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.