Silver (XAG) Forecast: Holds Range as Traders Turn to ADP and Fed for Direction

Silver Traders on Standby as Economic Data Gaps Mute Momentum

Spot silver (XAG/USD) is inching higher to start the week, but the rally remains capped within a narrow range. Monday’s price action held inside Friday’s session, signaling trader indecision ahead of a muted but pivotal week for U.S. economic data. While silver has held firm just below key retracement levels, the lack of a definitive catalyst has kept fresh upside at bay.

At 14:22 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $48.76, up $0.06 or +0.13%.

Delayed Government Data Shifts Focus to Private Reports

As the U.S. government shutdown enters its second month, markets are again bracing for a delay in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report, originally scheduled for Friday. This would mark the second straight missed NFP release — a key gauge for inflation and rate expectations. In its absence, traders are expected to lean heavily on Wednesday’s ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM manufacturing and services surveys to guide sentiment.

Other reports likely impacted by the shutdown include factory orders, the trade balance, and job openings — all critical to gauging real economic momentum. However, key scheduled events such as the Federal Reserve’s consumer credit report and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index remain on deck.

Fed Speakers to Shape Rate Expectations

In addition to the data trickle, remarks from Federal Reserve officials — including Philadelphia’s Anna Paulson, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem, and New York’s John Williams — may influence silver via interest rate recalibrations. With last week’s second rate cut of the year still fresh, markets remain sensitive to any indication the Fed is pausing or adjusting its path, especially as data remains incomplete due to the ongoing shutdown.

Silver Faces Overhead Resistance While Gold Signals Similar Caution

Silver’s near-term upside remains defined by the retracement zone between $50.02 and $51.07, with the 50-day moving average at $45.63 serving as a key pivot. Traders are watching closely for a move through these levels, but current conditions show little conviction. Spot gold is displaying similar behavior, holding just below resistance at $4046.60, as both metals appear to be tracking broader dollar and rate sentiment.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautious Bullish Bias Ahead of Key Data

Silver maintains a cautiously bullish bias for the near term, though price remains trapped below major technical levels. A clean break above $45.63 could open the door for follow-through toward $50+, but a weak ADP report or dovish Fed remarks may be necessary to spark that move. Until then, expect rangebound action driven by patchy data and headline risk.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.