Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Market Awaits Fed Clarity With Breakout Above $39.13 in Sight

Silver Targets $44 as 14-Year High Comes Under Attack

Silver surged Tuesday, poised to challenge last week’s 14-year high at $39.13 as precious metals capitalize on dollar weakness and falling Treasury yields. This represents the final barrier before the major technical target near $44.00, with gold’s climb to five-week highs providing additional momentum for the white metal’s breakout attempt.

At 13:10 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $39.20, up $0.27 or +0.69%.

The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to 97.86 after failing to hold the 50-day SMA at 98.60, while the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.37%, falling below its 50-day average. This combination is driving renewed buying interest across precious metals as investors abandon yield-bearing assets.

Can Silver Break $39.13 and Rush Toward $44 Target?

Silver’s technical setup is primed for a significant breakout, with the 14-year high at $39.13 representing the last meaningful resistance before the psychologically important $44.00 level. The white metal is benefiting from gold’s strength as XAU/USD approaches $3,451.53 resistance, creating positive momentum across the precious metals complex.

Support remains solid at the $37.64 pivot and swing bottom at $37.50, providing downside protection for bulls positioning for the breakout. Until these levels break, dip-buying continues to dominate silver’s price action.

Will Powell’s Speech Spark Fed Policy Repricing Today?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s 12:30 GMT speech looms as the key catalyst, with traders eager to see whether he acknowledges growing internal calls for rate cuts. Fed Governors Waller and Bowman have both advocated for immediate easing, citing tariff-driven inflation as transitory.

Markets are pricing just a 4.7% chance of a July cut, reflecting skepticism that Powell will deviate from the current 4.25%-4.50% rate range. Any dovish tilt could hammer the dollar further and provide the spark silver needs to clear $39.13 resistance.

Tariff Surge to 22.5% Creates Fed Communications Challenge

The U.S. average effective tariff rate has surged to 22.5%—its highest since 1909—driving June CPI to 2.7% year-over-year. Powell previously stated the Fed would have already eased if not for tariff-induced inflation, creating a delicate balance between persistent price pressures and weak economic data.

With core PCE still well above target and the August 1 trade tariff deadline approaching, this uncertainty is reinforcing silver’s safe-haven appeal alongside its industrial demand fundamentals.

Gold Strength Provides Silver With Breakout Tailwinds

Gold’s climb to $3,451.53 resistance—the June 16 swing high—is supporting silver’s technical advance. The yellow metal maintains strong bullish structure with support between $3,331 and $3,310, and any sustained move above current levels would expose the $3,500.20 all-time high.

Gold’s leadership often translates into silver outperformance during precious metals rallies, particularly when dollar weakness persists and industrial demand remains steady.

Market Forecast: Silver Positioned for Major Breakout Above $39.13

The technical and fundamental backdrop strongly favors silver’s push toward $44.00. Dollar Index weakness, Fed policy uncertainty, and gold’s concurrent strength create ideal conditions for silver to clear its 14-year high.

Even measured comments from Powell could maintain dollar pressure given visible Fed discord. With risk premiums rising ahead of trade deadlines and silver’s dual safe-haven and industrial appeal, the white metal appears positioned for its most significant breakout in over a decade.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.