Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Rally Gains Momentum as Bullish News Lifts Price Toward $44.22

Silver Tracks Gold Higher as Traders Eye Fed, Dollar, and Treasurys

Silver (XAG/USD) extended its rally Wednesday, mirroring gold’s surge as market bets on a September Fed rate cut intensified and long-end Treasury yields briefly broke above 5%. After breaking through resistance at $40.93, silver is now targeting $44.22—its next key upside level.

The rally puts silver well above its 50-day moving average at $38.00, underscoring bullish momentum. However, this positioning also leaves the metal exposed to sharp, temporary pullbacks that may not disrupt the broader uptrend. Traders are advised to stay alert to short-term reversals, especially as headline risks mount.

Fed Policy in Focus as Rate Cut Odds Hit 92%

CME FedWatch now shows a 92% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting. This has lit a fire under non-yielding assets like silver and gold, which benefit from a lower interest rate environment. The shift in rate expectations follows growing concerns about the Fed’s independence and increasing political interference.

Public friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve intensified this week. President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook—now facing legal resistance—has stoked fears of political encroachment into central bank operations. Nearly 600 economists have signed an open letter defending the Fed’s autonomy, adding to uncertainty around future monetary policy.

Dollar Weakness and Treasury Moves Add Fuel

The U.S. dollar, already down over 9% year-to-date, continues to lose ground as political and trade tensions simmer. For silver, a weaker greenback enhances appeal for foreign buyers and further supports upward price action.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury markets have become increasingly sensitive to legal and political developments. The 30-year yield briefly crossed the 5% mark on Tuesday before pulling back to 4.936% Wednesday. This move came in response to a federal appeals court ruling that deemed most of Trump’s import tariffs illegal—raising the possibility of multibillion-dollar refunds and renewed fiscal uncertainty.

Silver Outlook: $44.22 Target in Sight, But Watch for Volatility

Silver remains in a firm uptrend with momentum favoring higher prices in the short term. As long as the metal holds above its 50-day moving average and macro drivers like a weakening dollar, dovish Fed outlook, and Treasury yield volatility stay intact, bulls are in control.

Immediate resistance sits at $44.22, while any pullbacks toward $40.93 could offer renewed entry points for long positions. A confirmed close above $42 would increase the probability of testing the upper range.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.