Silver (XAG) Forecast: Traders Eye CPI as Silver Rally Stalls Near the Highs

Silver on Edge as CPI Print Threatens to Break the Stalemate

Spot Silver is holding just under its record high near $66.90 as traders position for today’s U.S. CPI release at 15:30 GMT. The market has been quiet, but not because interest has faded — participants are waiting for clarity before committing capital. With silver sitting this close to its peak, the inflation number becomes the only catalyst that matters in the next 24 hours.

Expectations center on 3.1% headline CPI and 3.0% core, yet this month’s reading is unusual. October’s report was canceled during the shutdown and November’s figure is stitched together from the latter half of the month. That compromises precision and may distort the market’s first impression once the number hits screens.

Technically, the main trend is up. Bullish news could take out $66.90 and signal a resumption of the uptrend. Bearish news could encourage profit-taking, setting up a possible correction into the first pivot at $63.85.

At 13:10 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $65.83, down $0.38 or -0.58%.

How Much Does a “Two Handle” Matter?

Some economists, including Interactive Brokers’ José Torres, argue inflation could slip to 2.9% for both headline and core. If correct, that move back into the “two” level carries real psychological weight for traders focused on Fed policy. A softer read supports the case for additional 2026 rate cuts, widens the gap between real yields and precious metals, and bolsters the bullish thesis.

But not everyone sees a clean downside miss. Crossmark’s Victoria Fernandez highlights the messy data construction and warns that a tenth in either direction may fail to sway the Fed. Without month-over-month numbers to guide interpretation, markets are left parsing a dataset that may not reflect early-November price trends.

Why Bulls Still Dominate — Cautiously

Silver’s broader tailwinds remain intact: tight supply, steady industrial demand, and sustained interest from defensive buyers. Those fundamentals justify firm pricing near all-time highs, but in the short term the Fed is still the referee. A softer CPI keeps policy expectations supportive; a hotter number invites faster profit-taking.

The market has already identified $63.85 as the key pullback zone. A move below that would indicate sellers are starting to regain control. Above it, bulls continue to dictate positioning into year-end.

What Traders Should Expect at the Release

A 2.9% print likely sparks an immediate bid as rate-cut expectations strengthen and the dollar cools. In that scenario, silver could challenge new highs quickly. But if CPI lands at or above 3.1%, long positions set up for a breakout may unwind fast, forcing a short-term reset.

Short-Term Market Forecast

Bias remains bullish, but conditional. If the CPI number comes in soft, silver has room to extend higher. A hotter reading delays momentum but does not erase the longer-term demand story. For now, the next move is entirely data-driven — and traders should expect volatility once the print hits.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.